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Backtest
Backtest lab
Real resolved market outcomes vs the model's last prediction. 149 markets resolved.
Deterministic synthetic cohort (seed 42, n=160) demonstrating the calibration machinery. Not a performance forecast.
Equal $1,000 stake on every simulated market where EV after fees and slippage cleared the 5% hurdle - the same gate the production research signal classifier uses.
| Category | Trades | Favorable rate | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| ELECTIONS | 5 | 60% | +$6,475 |
| COMPANY | 4 | 75% | +$4,578 |
| CRYPTO REGULATION | 6 | 50% | +$3,310 |
| GEOPOLITICS | 9 | 22% | +$2,504 |
| FED | 4 | 75% | +$1,873 |
| MACRO | 3 | 67% | +$1,588 |
| CRYPTO | 3 | 67% | -$133 |
| CPI INFLATION | 4 |
| 25% |
| -$2,865 |
| AI REGULATION | 4 | 25% | -$2,939 |