Calibration
Better forecasts start with measured probabilities.
A well-calibrated forecaster is right 70% of the time when they say 70%. Sign in to compare your probability estimates to the model.
Reliability monitor
Confidence vs reality
Resolved
--
engine markets
Engine
--
Brier score
Personal
--
graded forecasts
Calibration curve
Bars should rise near the diagonal.
14%
29%
43%
57%
71%
86%
Question
When the model says 70%, does 70% happen?
Use
Find overconfidence, underconfidence, and category bias.