Forecast Alpha

Calibration

Better forecasts start with measured probabilities.

A well-calibrated forecaster is right 70% of the time when they say 70%. Sign in to compare your probability estimates to the model.

Reliability monitor

Confidence vs reality

Auditable
Resolved
--
engine markets
Engine
--
Brier score
Personal
--
graded forecasts

Calibration curve

Bars should rise near the diagonal.

0-100%
14%
29%
43%
57%
71%
86%
Question
When the model says 70%, does 70% happen?
Use
Find overconfidence, underconfidence, and category bias.