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Market 80.5% against model 68.0%. Resolves in resolved, data updated 10d ago.
Decision layer
The model disagreement survives the current gates. This is still research context, not financial advice.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
strong feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side NO
68.0% model / 80.5% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Model edge survives the current public research gates.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Model 68.0% vs market 80.5%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Model leans NO
The model-market gap currently survives the decision gates, but it is still research context and must be judged against the public track record.
Volume $68,086
The model estimates a 13-point lower probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate and recent price momentum.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 67% | — | +0.726 | Bullish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
No comparable events matched for this market.
On September 18, 2026, President Trump announced that CNN, MS NOW, and Politico were banned from the White House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the ban is lifted for at least one of CNN, MS NOW, or Politico. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The ban is lifted if: (i) the President, the White House, or an authorized White House official publicly announces that the ban is lifted or will not be enforced, (ii) the United States government officially rescinds, suspends, reverses, or withdraws the ban for one or more of the specified outlets; (iii) a court or other competent authority issues an order that rescinds the ban or bars its enforcement for one or more of the specified outlets. The following do not qualify: a statement that the ban may or might be lifted, or that access may be restored if certain conditions are met; discussions or negotiations about lifting the ban; third-party speculation or reporting about a potential lifting of the ban. Once the ban has been lifted, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the ban is subsequently reimposed, a relevant order is later stayed or reversed, or access is again withdrawn. If, on September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ban has not been enforced prior to that time, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The primary resolution sources will be official information from the White House and the affected outlets, official court records in any related litigation, and a consensus of credible reporting.
analyzed by heuristicOn September 18, 2026, President Trump announced that CNN, MS NOW, and Politico were banned from the White House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the ban is lifted for at least one of CNN, MS NOW, or Politico. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The ban is lifted if: (i) the President, the White House, or an authorized White House official publicly announces that the ban is lifted or will not be enforced, (ii) the United States government officially rescinds, suspends, reverses, or withdraws the ban for one or more of the specified outlets; (iii) a court or other competent authority issues an order that rescinds the ban or bars its enforcement for one or more of the specified outlets. The following do not qualify: a statement that the ban may or might be lifted, or that access may be restored if certain conditions are met; discussions or negotiations about lifting the ban; third-party speculation or reporting about a potential lifting of the ban. Once the ban has been lifted, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the ban is subsequently reimposed, a relevant order is later stayed or reversed, or access is again withdrawn. If, on September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ban has not been enforced prior to that time, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The primary resolution sources will be official information from the White House and the affected outlets, official court records in any related litigation, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolves Thu, 01 Oct 2026 03:59:00 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| 0.00 |
| 0.20 |
| 0.000 |
| Neutral |
| Linked venue pricing the same event higher/lower (V2 scanner); 0 without an approved link. |
| Recent price momentum | −0.23 | 0.35 | −0.082 | Bearish | 7-day drift of the market's own implied probability — sustained moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.25 | — | — | 2-year Treasury yield reaction in the 48 hours after the most recent scheduled release — a proxy for how markets interpreted the data versus expectations. |
| Yield curve shift | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.15 | — | — | 30-day change in the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. A flattening curve signals tightening expectations; steepening signals easing. |
| News signal | —This factor was not available for this market. No news signal available for this market in the past 14 days. | 0.25 | — | — | Reliability-weighted direction of relevant news from the past 14 days. Official sources (filings, agency statements) carry more weight than commentary. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| Model probability | 65.6% | Prior: 67% · Market: 80.5% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.84 | Final: 68.0% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Since the first stored model read on 2026-09-23, the market has moved from 79.0% to 80.5%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: News signal, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 28 | |
| Price volatility | 52 | |
| Resolution proximity | 100 | |
| Data quality | 59 | |
| Category base risk | 55 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 8 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 32/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? category context: same category + wording overlap | 2.8% | +35pt |
| Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? category context: same category + wording overlap | 15.5% | -- |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? category context: same category + wording overlap | 49.5% | +1pt |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? category context: same category + wording overlap | 67.5% | -- |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 1? category context: similar expiry window + wording overlap | 0.1% | -- |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.