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Market 10.5% against model 26.1%. Resolves in 27d 17h, data updated 3h ago.
Decision layer
The model disagreement survives the current gates. This is still research context, not financial advice.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
26.1% model / 10.5% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Model edge survives the current public research gates.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Model 26.1% vs market 10.5%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Model leans YES
The model-market gap currently survives the decision gates, but it is still research context and must be judged against the public track record.
Sign in to return to this exact question, review governed evidence, and record an append-only probability without exposing private thesis text.
Volume $381,560
The model estimates a 16-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 29% | — | −0.881 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
No comparable events matched for this market.
On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. An unlisted group will only qualify if the Israeli claim itself, or accompanying statements or releases, specifies that the group is a proxy of or otherwise is controlled or directed by Iran. A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named. Such a statement will be considered to claim that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident if it explicitly claims th
analyzed by heuristicOn September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. An unlisted group will only qualify if the Israeli claim itself, or accompanying statements or releases, specifies that the group is a proxy of or otherwise is controlled or directed by Iran. A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named. Such a statement will be considered to claim that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident if it explicitly claims that Iran or an affiliated group ordered, carried out, planned, or otherwise directly aided or coordinated the incident. Statements that attribute only inspiration or ideological influence (e.g., "this would not have happened if Iran didn't radicalize terrorists," "the co-pilot was influenced by Hamas' ideas") will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement has been made, no subsequent walkback or retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli national government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| —This factor was not available for this market. No approved link prices the same event on another venue for this market. |
| 0.20 |
| — |
| — |
| Whether the same event is priced differently on another venue. A gap may signal an opportunity or a structural difference. |
| Recent price momentum | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.000 | Neutral | Drift of the market's own implied probability over its last 8 price updates (typically hours; the key's "7d" is historical) — recent moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.25 | — | — | 2-year Treasury yield reaction in the 48 hours after the most recent scheduled release — a proxy for how markets interpreted the data versus expectations. |
| Yield curve shift | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.15 | — | — | 30-day change in the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. A flattening curve signals tightening expectations; steepening signals easing. |
| News signal | —This factor was not available for this market. No news signal available for this market in the past 14 days. | 0.25 | — | — | Reliability-weighted direction of relevant news from the past 14 days. Official sources (filings, agency statements) carry more weight than commentary. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| Model probability | 29.3% | Prior: 29% · Market: 10.5% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.83 | Final: 26.1% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Resolves Sun, 01 Nov 2026 03:59:00 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Since the first stored model read on 2026-10-01, the market has moved from 15.5% to 10.5%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: Cross-market divergence, News signal, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 18 | |
| Price volatility | 17 | |
| Resolution proximity | 0 | |
| Data quality | 61 | |
| Category base risk | 80 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 8 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 24/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? category context: same category + wording overlap | 50.5% | -0pt |
| Will Rafael Fonteles win the 2026 Piauí gubernatorial election? category context: wording overlap | 99.1% | -16pt |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba? category context: wording overlap | 94.1% | -13pt |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? category context: wording overlap | 67.5% | -- |
| Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? category context: wording overlap | 66.5% | -6pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.