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Market 1.3% against model 19.3%. Resolves in 19d 24h, data updated 1d ago.
Decision layer
The model disagreement survives the current gates. This is still research context, not financial advice.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
19.3% model / 1.3% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Model edge survives the current public research gates.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Model 19.3% vs market 1.3%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Model leans YES
The model-market gap currently survives the decision gates, but it is still research context and must be judged against the public track record.
Sign in to return to this exact question, review governed evidence, and record an append-only probability without exposing private thesis text.
usable feature coverage.
Volume $760,423
The model estimates a 18-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 22% | — | −1.269 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Cross-market divergence | 0.00 | 0.20 |
No comparable events matched for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait. Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting. Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory. Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this mar
analyzed by heuristicThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait. Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting. Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory. Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolves Mon, 31 Aug 2026 23:59:00 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| 0.000 |
| Neutral |
| Linked venue pricing the same event higher/lower (V2 scanner); 0 without an approved link. |
| 7-day price momentum | +0.00 | 0.35 | +0.001 | Neutral | 7-day drift of the market's own implied probability — sustained moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.25 | — | — | 2-year Treasury yield reaction in the 48 hours after the most recent scheduled release — a proxy for how markets interpreted the data versus expectations. |
| Yield curve shift | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.15 | — | — | 30-day change in the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. A flattening curve signals tightening expectations; steepening signals easing. |
| News signal | —This factor was not available for this market. No news signal available for this market in the past 14 days. | 0.25 | — | — | Reliability-weighted direction of relevant news from the past 14 days. Official sources (filings, agency statements) carry more weight than commentary. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| Model probability | 22.0% | Prior: 22% · Market: 1.3% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.87 | Final: 19.3% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Since the first stored model read on 2026-07-31, the market has moved from 3.3% to 1.3%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: News signal, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 12 | |
| Price volatility | 2 | |
| Resolution proximity | 0 | |
| Data quality | 48 | |
| Category base risk | 80 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 8 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 20/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? category context: same category + wording overlap | 99.9% | -23pt |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? category context: same category + wording overlap | 99.9% | -27pt |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? category context: same category + wording overlap | 99.5% | -- |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? category context: same category + wording overlap | 99.5% | -- |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? category context: same category + wording overlap | 50.5% | -0pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.