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Market 11.0% against model 39.2%. Resolves in resolved, data updated 9h ago.
Decision layer
The market is worth monitoring, but the current edge or evidence does not justify an actionable label.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
39.2% model / 11.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Interesting disagreement, but the full action threshold is not met.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Model 39.2% vs market 11.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Watch, do not force it
The market is directionally interesting, but at least one evidence, edge, liquidity, or risk condition is not strong enough.
Volume $1,203,234
The model estimates a 28-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 41% | — | −0.376 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
No comparable events matched for this market.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
analyzed by heuristicThis market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
- Oracle dependency Resolution depends on a single named source continuing to publish the metric.
Resolves Tue, 25 Aug 2026 23:59:00 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| —This factor was not available for this market. No approved cross-venue link exists for this market. |
| 0.20 |
| — |
| — |
| Whether the same event is priced differently on another venue. A gap may signal an opportunity or a structural difference. |
| 7-day price momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor was not available for this market. | 0.35 | — | — | 7-day drift in the market's own implied probability. Sustained directional moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.25 | — | — | 2-year Treasury yield reaction in the 48 hours after the most recent scheduled release — a proxy for how markets interpreted the data versus expectations. |
| Yield curve shift | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.15 | — | — | 30-day change in the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. A flattening curve signals tightening expectations; steepening signals easing. |
| News signal | —This factor was not available for this market. No news signal available for this market in the past 14 days. | 0.25 | — | — | Reliability-weighted direction of relevant news from the past 14 days. Official sources (filings, agency statements) carry more weight than commentary. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| Model probability | 40.7% | Prior: 41% · Market: 32.5% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.82 | Final: 39.2% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Since the first stored model read on 2026-08-24, the market has moved from 34.5% to 11.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: Cross-market divergence, 7-day price momentum, News signal, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 24 | |
| Price volatility | 50 | |
| Resolution proximity | 100 | |
| Data quality | 18 | |
| Category base risk | 55 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 18 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 36/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25? adjacent contract: nearby expiry + wording overlap | 100.0% | -19pt |
| Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%? category context: same category + wording overlap | 99.8% | -16pt |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? category context: same category + wording overlap | 53.5% | -8pt |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? category context: same category + wording overlap | 49.5% | +1pt |
| Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–1.2%? category context: same category + wording overlap | 0.5% | -- |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.