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Market 0.1% against model 23.0%. Resolves in resolved, data updated 11d ago.
Decision layer
The model disagreement survives the current gates. This is still research context, not financial advice.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
23.0% model / 0.1% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Model edge survives the current public research gates.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Model 23.0% vs market 0.1%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Model leans YES
The model-market gap currently survives the decision gates, but it is still research context and must be judged against the public track record.
Sign in to return to this exact question, review governed evidence, and record an append-only probability without exposing private thesis text.
usable feature coverage.
Volume $257,147
The model estimates a 23-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 26% | — | −1.030 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Cross-market divergence | This factor was not available for this market. No approved cross-venue link exists for this market. |
No comparable events matched for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
analyzed by heuristicThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
- Oracle dependency Resolution depends on a single named source continuing to publish the metric.
Resolves Sat, 01 Aug 2026 16:00:00 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| 0.20 |
| — |
| — |
| Whether the same event is priced differently on another venue. A gap may signal an opportunity or a structural difference. |
| 7-day price momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor was not available for this market. | 0.35 | — | — | 7-day drift in the market's own implied probability. Sustained directional moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.25 | — | — | 2-year Treasury yield reaction in the 48 hours after the most recent scheduled release — a proxy for how markets interpreted the data versus expectations. |
| Yield curve shift | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.15 | — | — | 30-day change in the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. A flattening curve signals tightening expectations; steepening signals easing. |
| News signalsim | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.000 | Neutral | Reliability-weighted mean of extracted news direction labels, past 14 days. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| Model probability | 26.3% | Prior: 26% · Market: 10.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.80 | Final: 23.0% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Since the first stored model read on 2026-07-31, the market has moved from 10.5% to 0.1%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: Cross-market divergence, 7-day price momentum, BTC/ETH 7-day momentum, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 23 | |
| Price volatility | 15 | |
| Resolution proximity | 100 | |
| Data quality | 49 | |
| Category base risk | 50 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 18 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 37/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + nearby expiry | 100.0% | -- |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + nearby expiry | 100.0% | -- |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 1? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + nearby expiry | 100.0% | -- |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 1? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + nearby expiry | 100.0% | -- |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + nearby expiry | 99.9% | -23pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.