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Market 9.5% against model 28.0%. Resolves in 119d 14h, data updated 8d ago.
Decision layer
The model disagreement survives the current gates. This is still research context, not financial advice.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
28.0% model / 9.5% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Model edge survives the current public research gates.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Model 28.0% vs market 9.5%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Model leans YES
The model-market gap currently survives the decision gates, but it is still research context and must be judged against the public track record.
Sign in to return to this exact question, review governed evidence, and record an append-only probability without exposing private thesis text.
Volume $2,222,276
The model estimates a 18-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate and yield curve shift.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 33% | — | −0.726 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
No comparable events matched for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
analyzed by heuristicThis market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Oracle dependency Resolution depends on a single named source continuing to publish the metric.
Resolves Sun, 31 Jan 2027 00:00:00 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| 0.00 |
| 0.20 |
| 0.000 |
| Neutral |
| Linked venue pricing the same event higher/lower (V2 scanner); 0 without an approved link. |
| Recent price momentum | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.000 | Neutral | 7-day drift of the market's own implied probability — sustained moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | +0.13 | 0.25 | +0.033 | Neutral | 2y-yield reaction in the 48h after the latest scheduled release — the observable proxy for surprise vs consensus. |
| Yield curve shift | −0.56 | 0.15 | −0.085 | Bearish | 30-day change in the 10y−2y slope. |
| News signal | —This factor was not available for this market. No news signal available for this market in the past 14 days. | 0.25 | — | — | Reliability-weighted direction of relevant news from the past 14 days. Official sources (filings, agency statements) carry more weight than commentary. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| Model probability | 31.5% | Prior: 33% · Market: 9.5% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.84 | Final: 28.0% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Since the first stored model read on 2026-09-15, the market has moved from 21.0% to 9.5%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: News signal, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 15 | |
| Price volatility | 10 | |
| Resolution proximity | 0 | |
| Data quality | 61 | |
| Category base risk | 50 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 18 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 18/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? category context: wording overlap | 67.5% | -- |
| UK inflation falls below 2.0% for May 2026? category context: same category + wording overlap | 55.0% | -6pt |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? category context: wording overlap | 50.5% | -0pt |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? category context: wording overlap | 49.9% | +2pt |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? category context: wording overlap | 49.5% | +1pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.