Forecast Alpha

Earnings and corporate event odds

Company Event Markets

Company, earnings, M&A, and product-event markets where timing, filings, and consensus definitions matter.
4
active markets
category universe
4
positive signals
model sees edge
2
watch
monitor list
0
risk-filtered
declined by gates

Category read

What changed, what matters, and what still needs verification.

What matters

  • - Upcoming report date, guidance, filings, and consensus threshold.
  • - Whether the question uses GAAP, non-GAAP, adjusted, or reported figures.
  • - Liquidity and post-news price reaction after a catalyst lands.

What to verify

  • - Exact metric and source document used for settlement.
  • - Whether the threshold is above consensus, below consensus, or binary event completion.
  • - Related markets on revenue, EPS, guidance, or share-price reaction.

Category pages are research maps, not trade recommendations

These pages are meant to compress a topic into market probabilities, model disagreement, risk filters, and evidence prompts. A strong category page should make the next question obvious even when the best decision is to wait.

Current candidates

Markets where the model is doing something interesting.

EV is after modeled fees and slippage.

MarketMktModelEVSignalMoveResolves
Demo dataCompany
AAPL reports Q2 FY2026 EPS above consensus?

Apple Q2 FY2026 earnings. The model sees a small edge but below the tradeable hurdle.

52.0%68.2%+13.1%LONG YES-2.4ptresolved
Demo dataCompany
NVDA reports Q2 FY2027 revenue above $45B?

NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings. Strong AI infrastructure spending supports YES.

62.0%76.0%+10.8%LONG YES+0.9pt53d 14h
Demo dataCompany
Microsoft Azure revenue exceeds $50B in FY2027 Q1?

Azure cloud revenue for Q1 FY2027 (ending September 2026). Slim model edge.

50.0%57.0%+3.6%WATCH+5.7pt108d 14h
Demo dataCompany
AAPL market cap exceeds $4T at any point in 2026?

Apple valuation milestone. Modest model edge over market.

48.0%54.0%+2.6%WATCH+6.6pt188d 14h

All active markets

Category coverage

Volume shown in detail pages; top-level sort follows nearest resolution.

MarketMktModelEVSignalMoveResolves
Demo dataCompany
AAPL reports Q2 FY2026 EPS above consensus?

Apple Q2 FY2026 earnings. The model sees a small edge but below the tradeable hurdle.

52.0%68.2%+13.1%LONG YES-2.4ptresolved
Demo dataCompany
NVDA reports Q2 FY2027 revenue above $45B?

NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings. Strong AI infrastructure spending supports YES.

62.0%76.0%+10.8%LONG YES+0.9pt53d 14h
Demo dataCompany
Microsoft Azure revenue exceeds $50B in FY2027 Q1?

Azure cloud revenue for Q1 FY2027 (ending September 2026). Slim model edge.

50.0%57.0%+3.6%WATCH+5.7pt108d 14h
Demo dataCompany
AAPL market cap exceeds $4T at any point in 2026?

Apple valuation milestone. Modest model edge over market.

48.0%54.0%+2.6%WATCH+6.6pt188d 14h