Election odds and campaign-event markets
Election Prediction Markets
Category terminal
Election odds and campaign-event markets
Election odds and campaign-event markets
Election Prediction Markets
Candidate, nomination, and political event markets with attention to polling, rules, and correlated exposure.
Category read
What changed, what matters, and what still needs verification.
What changed
- -2.2pt[DEMO] Outcome of 2026 midterm elections?
- -1.9ptRepublicans win US House majority in 2026 midterms?
- +0.1ptWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- 0.0ptTrump out as President before GTA VI?
- 0.0ptWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
What matters
- - Polling movement, ballot access, debate/news catalysts, and market liquidity.
- - Whether a market is about nomination, election win, withdrawal, or another defined event.
- - Adjacent candidate markets that imply the same outcome from another angle.
What to verify
- - Official resolution source and party/convention rules.
- - Whether the market can be invalidated or resolves on a special case.
- - Correlated positions across the same race.
Category pages are research maps, not trade recommendations
Current candidates
Markets where the model is doing something interesting.
EV is after modeled fees and slippage.
| Market | Mkt | Model | EV | Signal | Move | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
POLYMARKET Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | 4.5% | 20.2% | +13.1% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 864d 10h |
POLYMARKET Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | 5.1% | 20.8% | +13.1% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 864d 10h |
POLYMARKET Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | 9.3% | 20.9% | +8.8% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 864d 10h |
POLYMARKET Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | 24.3% | 31.1% | +4.0% | WATCH | +0.1pt | 864d 10h |
Republicans win US House majority in 2026 midterms? 2026 midterm House control. Model has marginal edge over market pricing. | 52.0% | 59.0% | +3.7% | WATCH | -1.9pt | 138d 14h |
All active markets
Category coverage
Volume shown in detail pages; top-level sort follows nearest resolution.
| Market | Mkt | Model | EV | Signal | Move | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KALSHI yes Tyler Phillips: 5+,yes Davis Martin: 6+,no Adrian Houser: 4+,yes Edward Cabrera: 6+yes Tyler Phillips: 5+,yes Davis Martin: 6+,no Adrian Houser: 4+,yes Edward Cabrera: 6+ — yes Tyler Phillips: 5+,yes Davis Martin: 6+,no Adrian Houser: 4+,yes Edward Cabrera: 6+ | 4.5% | 16.4% | -- | -- | resolved | |
POLYMARKET Trump out as President before GTA VI?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count. The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting. | 50.5% | 50.3% | -- | 0.0pt | 34d 22h | |
Republicans win US House majority in 2026 midterms? 2026 midterm House control. Model has marginal edge over market pricing. | 52.0% | 59.0% | +3.7% | WATCH | -1.9pt | 138d 14h |
[DEMO] Outcome of 2026 midterm elections? Resolution criteria are ambiguous — the contract does not specify which chamber, which party, or what constitutes a definitive outcome. | 48.0% | 52.0% | -- | -2.2pt | 138d 14h | |
POLYMARKET Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | 24.3% | 31.1% | +4.0% | WATCH | +0.1pt | 864d 10h |
POLYMARKET Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | 9.3% | 20.9% | +8.8% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 864d 10h |
POLYMARKET Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | 4.5% | 20.2% | +13.1% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 864d 10h |
POLYMARKET Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. | 5.1% | 20.8% | +13.1% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 864d 10h |