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Election odds and campaign-event markets
Category terminal
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Current candidates
EV is after modeled fees and slippage.
| Market | Mkt | Model | EV | Signal | Move | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
POLYMARKET Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/). | 2.8% | 37.8% | +32.0% | LONG YES | -0.1pt | resolved |
All active markets
Volume shown in detail pages; top-level sort follows nearest resolution.
| Market | Mkt | Model | EV | Signal | Move | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
POLYMARKET Trump out as President before GTA VI?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count. The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting. | 49.5% |
POLYMARKET Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 63.9% | 38.6% | +22.7% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 11.5% | 33.3% | +18.8% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 21.3% | +17.7% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/). | 15.5% | 35.5% | +17.2% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 22d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 36.5% | 55.5% | +16.3% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 18.1% | +14.1% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 17.8% | +14.0% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 22h |
| 50.2% |
| -- |
| -- |
| resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | 67.5% | -- | -- | -- | +2.5pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Chief Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chief Minister takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | 15.5% | -- | -- | -- | +11.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/). | 2.8% | 37.8% | +32.0% | LONG YES | -0.1pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 17.2% | +13.2% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 18.1% | +14.1% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Augusto Cury finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.2% | 17.2% | +13.1% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Eduardo Leite finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 1.3% | 16.8% | +12.6% | LONG YES | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | -- | resolved |
POLYMARKET Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv). | 99.7% | 82.9% | +13.0% | LONG NO | +0.0pt | 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes). | 66.5% | 60.7% | +2.7% | WATCH | -- | 4h |
POLYMARKET Will Rafael Fonteles win the 2026 Piauí gubernatorial election?The Piauí gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes). | 99.1% | 83.3% | +11.4% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 4h |
POLYMARKET Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 94.1% | 80.6% | +10.3% | LONG NO | -- | 4h |
POLYMARKET Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 17.8% | +14.0% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 17.4% | +13.4% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 3.9% | 23.8% | +12.5% | LONG YES | -1.8pt | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 89.5% | 77.5% | +8.8% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Daniel Vilela win the Governor of Goiás election?The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes). | 93.5% | 79.5% | +10.9% | LONG NO | -- | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | 31.7% | 38.2% | +3.5% | WATCH | 0.0pt | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | 0.2% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | 93.5% | 79.4% | +11.1% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Sol Zanetti be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | 0.2% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 21.3% | +17.7% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 36.5% | 55.5% | +16.3% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 63.9% | 38.6% | +22.7% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 17.3% | +13.3% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 17.3% | +13.6% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | 17.4% | +13.7% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 62.5% | 71.1% | +5.8% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 36.2% | 24.5% | +8.8% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 0.3% | 17.4% | +12.5% | LONG YES | -0.3pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 52.5% | 35.6% | +14.0% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 96.3% | 80.3% | +12.9% | LONG NO | -0.2pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 5.5% | 21.2% | +12.8% | LONG YES | +0.1pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 62.0% | 60.2% | -- | +0.5pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 38.5% | 38.3% | -- | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 24.3% | 34.4% | +7.2% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 11.5% | 33.3% | +18.8% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 12.0% | 25.5% | +10.5% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 98.7% | 82.6% | +13.1% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 45.5% | 58.1% | +9.6% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 37.1% | 41.4% | -- | -0.3pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes). | 26.0% | 34.1% | +5.1% | LONG YES | -3.5pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes). | 74.0% | 63.8% | +7.1% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/). | 4.4% | 19.4% | +12.1% | LONG YES | -0.3pt | 1d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes). | 76.6% | 71.0% | +2.5% | WATCH | -1.4pt | 1d 2h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — TrumpRXWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — TrumpRX | 42.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Trump (3+ times)What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Trump (3+ times) | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Pharma / PharmaceuticalWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Pharma / Pharmaceutical | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Obese / ObesityWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Obese / Obesity | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Obama / ObamacareWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Obama / Obamacare | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Event does not qualifyWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Event does not qualify | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Medicare / MedicaidWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Medicare / Medicaid | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — HealthcareWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Healthcare | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — GLP-1 / GLP 1What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — GLP-1 / GLP 1 | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — FraudWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Fraud | 49.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — DemocratWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Democrat | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Chronic DiseaseWhat will JD Vance say during MAHA Summit: In Conversation: Vice President JD Vance & Sec. Kennedy originally scheduled for September 29, 2026? — Chronic Disease | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 9d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | 70.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — TariffWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Tariff | 60.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — TalaricoWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Talarico | 65.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Social SecurityWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Social Security | 70.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Radical LeftWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Radical Left | 60.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Oil / Gas / GasolineWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 62.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Working Class / Middle ClassWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Working Class / Middle Class | 70.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Event does not qualifyWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Event does not qualify | 14.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Manufacture / ManufacturingWhat will JD Vance say during Midterm Rally in Harlingen, Texas originally scheduled for September 30, 2026? — Manufacture / Manufacturing | 60.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 10d 12h |
KALSHI What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Mobile, Alabama originally scheduled for Oct 2, 2026? — Gulf of AmericaWhat will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Mobile, Alabama originally scheduled for Oct 2, 2026? — Gulf of America | 50.5% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 12d 12h |
KALSHI What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — TrainWhat will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — Train | 48.0% | -- | -- | -- | -0.5pt | 13d 12h |
KALSHI Will Alhouseini Amro win the Asian Games Men's Individual Stroke Play?Will Alhouseini Amro win the Asian Games Men's Individual Stroke Play? | 50.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 13d 12h |
KALSHI What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — School ChoiceWhat will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — School Choice | 60.0% | -- | -- | -- | -5.5pt | 13d 12h |
KALSHI What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — Haiti / HaitianWhat will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — Haiti / Haitian | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | 13d 12h |
KALSHI What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — MorenoWhat will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — Moreno | 62.0% | -- | -- | -- | -8.0pt | 13d 12h |
KALSHI What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — Vivek / RamaswamyWhat will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — Vivek / Ramaswamy | 74.5% | -- | -- | -- | -7.5pt | 13d 12h |
KALSHI What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — Palestine / PalestinianWhat will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Vandalia, Ohio originally scheduled for October 3, 2026? — Palestine / Palestinian | 40.5% | -- | -- | -- | -8.0pt | 13d 12h |
POLYMARKET Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/). | 81.5% | 69.7% | +8.8% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 21d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/). | 36.0% | 38.2% | -- | +0.5pt | 21d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/). | 0.8% | -- | -- | -- | +0.0pt | 21d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/). | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | 21d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/). | 64.0% | 61.4% | -- | 0.0pt | 21d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Frank Scarpitti win the 2026 Markham mayoral election?The 2026 Markham, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Markham, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Markham, Ontario. | 93.3% | 79.6% | +10.4% | LONG NO | -- | 21d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/). | 15.5% | 35.5% | +17.2% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 22d 2h |
POLYMARKET Israel Election: Sami Abu Shehadeh Effectively Banned?Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sami Abu Shehadeh is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Sami Abu Shehadeh from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Sami Abu Shehadeh being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Sami Abu Shehadeh stands will qualify only where it also renders Sami Abu Shehadeh ineligible to be elected. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Sami Abu Shehadeh is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by Sami Abu Shehadeh to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Sami Abu Shehadeh remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Sami Abu Shehadeh, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occ | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | 23d 20h |
POLYMARKET Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | 0.1% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | 23d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option correspondi | 54.0% | 45.3% | +5.8% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 24d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option correspondi | 58.5% | 54.0% | -- | 0.0pt | 24d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). | 17.0% | 26.3% | +6.2% | LONG YES | -1.0pt | 24d 2h |
POLYMARKET Will United Russia (ER) win 55-60% of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. | 98.9% | 82.2% | +13.4% | LONG NO | +1.0pt | 27d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will United Russia (ER) win 60% or more of the party-list vote in the 2026 Russian State Duma election?Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. | 0.4% | 17.2% | +11.7% | LONG YES | -2.6pt | 27d 22h |
POLYMARKET CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?On September 18, 2026, President Trump announced that CNN, MS NOW, and Politico were banned from the White House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the ban is lifted for at least one of CNN, MS NOW, or Politico. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The ban is lifted if: (i) the President, the White House, or an authorized White House official publicly announces that the ban is lifted or will not be enforced, (ii) the United States government officially rescinds, suspends, reverses, or withdraws the ban for one or more of the specified outlets; (iii) a court or other competent authority issues an order that rescinds the ban or bars its enforcement for one or more of the specified outlets. The following do not qualify: a statement that the ban may or might be lifted, or that access may be restored if certain conditions are met; discussions or negotiations about lifting the ban; third-party speculation or reporting about a potential lifting of the ban. Once the ban has been lifted, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the ban is subsequently reimposed, a relevant order is later stayed or reversed, or access is again withdrawn. The primary resolution sources will be official information from the White House and the affected outlets, official court records in any related litigation, and a consensus of credible reporting. | 100.0% | -- | -- | -- | 0.0pt | 28d 2h |
POLYMARKET Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | 30.5% | 39.1% | +5.6% | LONG YES | 0.0pt | 29d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification. | 95.0% | 79.7% | +12.3% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 29d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification. | 73.5% | 66.3% | +4.3% | WATCH | 0.0pt | 29d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification. | 26.5% | 32.3% | +2.9% | WATCH | 0.0pt | 29d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. | 69.5% | 61.9% | +4.7% | WATCH | 0.0pt | 29d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification. | 82.3% | 73.2% | +6.9% | LONG NO | -0.9pt | 29d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. | 32.5% | 38.8% | +3.4% | WATCH | 0.0pt | 29d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will the Republican Party win the TX-30 House seat?This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | 2.6% | 17.6% | +12.0% | LONG YES | -- | 29d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | 74.5% | 66.3% | +5.1% | LONG NO | 0.0pt | 30d 22h |
POLYMARKET Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). | 25.5% | 33.3% | +4.7% | WATCH | 0.0pt | 30d 22h |