Core CPI below 2.5% YoY for June 2026?
Market 59.0% against model 72.0%. Resolves in 43d 10h, data updated 13d ago.
Decision layer
Actionable research signal
The model disagreement survives the current gates. This is still research context, not financial advice.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
One decision layer for the market read.
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
72.0% model / 59.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Model edge survives the current public research gates.
Watch resolution risk, timing, and data quality before trusting the gap.
Read this market in three passes
Model 72.0% vs market 59.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Model leans YES
Why this read matters
The model-market gap currently survives the decision gates, but it is still research context and must be judged against the public track record.
Core CPI below 2.5% YoY for June 2026?
Volume $140,625
Market-implied vs model probability
Factor attribution
The model estimates a 13-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 48% | — | −0.080 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Model probability | 72.0% | Prior: 48% · Market: 59.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.72 | Final: 72.0% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Comparable eventsseeded prior 48% - 3 matches (min 8 for historical)
| Event | Date | Outcome | Prior mkt prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI June 2023 — 3.0% YoY (downside miss) | 2023-07-12 | Headline 3.0% vs 3.1% expected. Core 4.8%. | -- |
| US CPI November 2022 — 7.1% YoY (downside miss) | 2022-12-13 | Headline 7.1% vs 7.3% forecast. Downside surprise. | -- |
| US CPI March 2021 — Core 1.6% YoY (in-line) | 2021-04-13 | Headline 2.6% YoY, Core 1.6%. In-line with forecasts. | -- |
Real historical events from the comparable-events library (showing 3 of 3 matched). The model's base rate is the realized frequency over the full matched set.
Scenario treeEngine template
Node probabilities are conditional on the parent; hover for cumulative path probability. Leaf EV is per $1 YES contract at the current price, before fees (fee-adjusted EVs in the table on the left).
| Path | Path prob. | YES pays | EV (YES, after costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Print at or below threshold > Clearly below (≥0.2pp) | 39.6% | $1 | +37.9c |
| Print at or below threshold > Just at / rounding-dependent | 32.4% | $1 | +37.9c |
| Print above threshold | 28.0% | $0 | -62.1c |
Root-implied probability 72.0% reconciles with the model's 72.0% (±1pt invariant).
Description
BLS CPI release for June 2026. Disinflation trend supports the model's YES call.
Resolution criteria (verbatim, with analyzer flags)
analyzed by heuristicResolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports Core CPI below 2.5% year-over-year for June 2026.
Resolves Sun, 09 Aug 2026 03:48:52 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Suggested paper position
Paper position only. No real-money execution
Live open-market tracking
Since the first stored model read on 2026-06-09, the market has moved from 59.0% to 59.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Data quality71/100 - usable
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
Risk factor breakdownsim
| Inverse liquidity | 25 | |
| Price volatility | 30 | |
| Resolution proximity | 0 | |
| Data quality | 44 | |
| Category base risk | 30 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 8 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 40/100, higher = riskier.