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Market 54.0% against model 59.8%. Resolves in 52d 17h.
Decision layer
The market is worth monitoring, but the current edge or evidence does not justify an actionable label.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
59.8% model / 54.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Interesting disagreement, but the full action threshold is not met.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Model 59.8% vs market 54.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Watch, do not force it
The market is directionally interesting, but at least one evidence, edge, liquidity, or risk condition is not strong enough.
Sign in to return to this exact question, review governed evidence, and record an append-only probability without exposing private thesis text.
usable feature coverage.
Volume $108,900
The model estimates a 6-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate and 7-day price momentum.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 60% | — | +0.406 | Bullish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Cross-market divergence | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.000 | Neutral | Linked venue pricing the same event higher/lower (V2 scanner); 0 without an approved link. |
| 7-day price momentum | +0.14 | 0.35 | +0.050 | Bullish | 7-day drift of the market's own implied probability — sustained moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.25 | |||
| Model probability | 61.2% | Prior: 60% · Market: 54.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.81 | Final: 59.8% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
| Event | Date | Outcome | Prior mkt prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-China tariff pause — 90-day pause announced | 2025-05-12 | US and China agreed to 90-day tariff pause. Rates reduced 115pp each. | 45% |
| US-China tariffs — Trump 2.0 tariff escalation (Liberation Day) | 2025-04-02 | Sweeping tariffs announced. Reciprocal tariffs on most trading partners. | 70% |
| Hamas attacks Israel — October 7 2023 | 2023-10-07 | Attack occurred. 1,200 Israelis killed. 250 taken hostage. | -- |
| Kosovo-Serbia tensions 2022-2023 — No armed conflict | 2023-07-15 | No armed conflict despite major escalations. NATO KFOR maintained peace. | -- |
| Taiwan Strait crisis 2022 — China military drills, no invasion | 2022-09-01 | No invasion. China conducted unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan then stood down. |
Node probabilities are conditional on the parent; hover for cumulative path probability. Leaf EV is per $1 YES contract at the current price, before fees (fee-adjusted EVs in the table on the left).
| Path | Path prob. | YES pays | EV (YES, after costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threshold hit in first half of window | 26.9% | $1 | +42.6c |
| Threshold hit in second half | 32.9% | $1 | +42.6c |
| Never reaches threshold in window | 40.3% | $0 | -57.4c |
Root-implied probability 59.8% reconciles with the model's 59.8% (±1pt invariant).
A 5.8% probability gap at a 54.0% price translates to 2.4% expected value per dollar of payout exposure after costs on the YES side. EV — not the raw probability gap — is the comparable number: the same gap is worth very different amounts at 50¢ and at 92¢.
The model's edge depends on its inputs being right. Concretely: the base rate of 60.0% may not apply if this event differs structurally from its reference class; the pm.momentum_7d factor could be noise rather than information at this horizon; and with confidence at 0.80, the model itself concedes meaningful estimation error. Resolution risk remains: the contract pays on the precise criteria — "Resolves YES if the United States and China sign a bilateral trade agreement before September 30, 2026.…" — not on the thesis.
GEOPOLITICS category exposure cap already reached in the paper portfolio.
analyzed by heuristicResolves YES if the United States and China sign a bilateral trade agreement before September 30, 2026.
- Deadline without timezone A deadline is stated without a timezone — the cutoff moment is undefined.
Resolves Thu, 01 Oct 2026 03:48:52 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| — |
| — |
| 2-year Treasury yield reaction in the 48 hours after the most recent scheduled release — a proxy for how markets interpreted the data versus expectations. |
| Yield curve shift | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.15 | — | — | 30-day change in the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. A flattening curve signals tightening expectations; steepening signals easing. |
| News signal | —This factor was not available for this market. No news signal available for this market in the past 14 days. | 0.25 | — | — | Reliability-weighted direction of relevant news from the past 14 days. Official sources (filings, agency statements) carry more weight than commentary. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| 12% |
| Russia invades Ukraine — Full-scale invasion | 2022-02-24 | INVADED. Full-scale invasion began. | 50% |
| Armenia-Azerbaijan war 2020 — Nagorno-Karabakh conflict | 2020-11-10 | Full-scale war. 44-day conflict. Azerbaijan recaptured most of Nagorno-Karabakh. 5,000+ killed. | 55% |
| India-China Galwan Valley military clash 2020 | 2020-06-15 | Armed clash occurred. 20 Indian soldiers killed. First fatalities on India-China border since 1975. | 20% |
| US-Iran escalation 2020 — No full-scale war after Soleimani killing | 2020-01-22 | No US-Iran war. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on US bases in Iraq (no US fatalities); standdown followed. | 35% |
| North Korea nuclear standoff 2017 — No armed conflict | 2018-01-15 | No armed conflict. Crisis de-escalated into diplomacy (Singapore Summit 2018). | 30% |
Real historical events from the comparable-events library (showing 10 of 10 matched). The model's base rate is the realized frequency over the full matched set.
Since the first stored model read on 2026-06-09, the market has moved from 54.0% to 54.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: News signal, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 34 | |
| Price volatility | 0 | |
| Resolution proximity | 0 | |
| Data quality | 27 | |
| Category base risk | 80 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 20 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 24/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| [DEMO] Crypto regulatory bill passes Senate vote this week? same event: same venue event + wording overlap | 55.0% | -9pt |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? category context: same category + wording overlap | 0.3% | -- |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? category context: same category + wording overlap | 50.5% | -0pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.