Failure mode: Resolution-criteria mismatch between venues, and legs that won't fill together. This card is a credibility exhibit, not a future live lane. A mismatch shows up below as a BROKEN fill with its realized loss.

Worst month: Worst month: a linked pair resolves on mismatched criteria — one leg loses in full while the hedge pays nothing.

Mechanical price relationships. No forecast required; returns bounded by execution and capacity.

Failure mode: Margin calls on the short leg during rallies; roll cost eating a thin basis.

Worst month: Worst month: a violent rally forces margin calls on the short future before expiry converges — the trade is right and the account still bleeds.

Mechanical price relationships. No forecast required; returns bounded by execution and capacity.

Failure mode: Funding regime flips; basis/depeg between the perp and its hedge.

Worst month: Worst month: funding flips negative while the hedge legs de-correlate — paid nothing, losing on both sides at once.

Paid to bear a known risk. No edge claim — the risk IS the product and is stated as such.

Failure mode: None to hide: it cannot blow up, and it is deliberately hard to beat. When it is winning, this card says so.

Worst month: No positions — this is the benchmark line, graded like everything else.

The benchmark itself, graded like everything else.

Failure mode: The model runs a level bias vs the market (measured, published, and being corrected through the challenger gate — never patched by hand).

Worst month: Worst month: systematic miscalibration across correlated macro releases — many small losses in the same direction.

The model must beat the market through the five-gate bar before any claim. Nothing ships in that class today.