This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Forecast composer
Start from a market URL or plain-English question.
Paste a Kalshi or Polymarket link, or ask about a market you have in mind. Forecast Alpha maps it to stored market context, then shows the model, risk gates, research brief, and trackable forecast record.
Forecast Alpha composer
Matched market context
Input
>BTC price today at 5pm
Candidates
3
matched
Best edge
0.0%
after costs
Output
rank
context first
Forecast composer
Start from a market URL or plain-English question.
Paste a Kalshi or Polymarket link, or ask about a market you have in mind. Forecast Alpha will map it to stored market context, then send you to the model, risk gates, research brief, and trackable forecast record.
Matched market context
Query type: question. Keywords: btc, today, 5pm.
Best matchPOLYMARKET
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?Market
49.5%
Model
52.2%
Edge EV
--
Resolves in
34d 18h
Confidence
0.84
Liquidity
84
Volume
$4,504,066
Market
0.5%
Model
13.9%
Edge EV
--
Resolves in
resolved
Confidence
0.62
Liquidity
5
Volume
$0
Market
0.5%
Model
14.6%
Edge EV
--
Resolves in
resolved
Confidence
0.65
Liquidity
5
Volume
$0
Market
0.5%
Model
14.6%
Edge EV
--
Resolves in
resolved
Confidence
0.65
Liquidity
5
Volume
$0
Market
0.5%
Model
13.9%
Edge EV
--
Resolves in
resolved
Confidence
0.62
Liquidity
5
Volume
$0
Market
0.5%
Model
13.9%
Edge EV
--
Resolves in
resolved
Confidence
0.62
Liquidity
5
Volume
$0