Forecast Alpha

Forecast composer

Start from a market URL or plain-English question.

Paste a Kalshi or Polymarket link, or ask about a market you have in mind. Forecast Alpha maps it to stored market context, then shows the model, risk gates, research brief, and trackable forecast record.

Forecast Alpha composer

Matched market context

Research only
Input
>BTC price today at 5pm
Candidates
3
matched
Best edge
0.0%
after costs
Output
rank
context first

This page does not issue standalone trade calls. It anchors your request to real market records so the contract, liquidity, model, and risk notes stay visible.

Matched market context

Query type: question. Keywords: btc, today, 5pm.

Looking for 15m or hourly crypto? Open Short-Term Crypto
Best matchPOLYMARKETCryptoNO TRADE
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

market text keyword match
Market
49.5%
Model
52.2%
Edge EV
--
Resolves in
34d 18h
Confidence
0.84
Liquidity
84
Volume
$4,504,066