Forecast Alpha

Forecast composer

Start from a market URL or plain-English question.

Paste a Kalshi or Polymarket link, or ask about a market you have in mind. Forecast Alpha maps it to stored market context, then shows the model, risk gates, research brief, and trackable forecast record.

Forecast Alpha composer

Matched market context

Research only
Input
>Paste a Kalshi or Polymarket market URL
Candidates
3
matched
Best edge
+14.8%
after costs
Output
rank
context first

This page does not issue standalone trade calls. It anchors your request to real market records so the contract, liquidity, model, and risk notes stay visible.

Matched market context

Query type: question. Keywords: paste, url.

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Best matchPOLYMARKETMacroLONG YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform matches POLYMARKET
Market
1.7%
Model
19.0%
Edge EV
+14.8%
Resolves in
23d 3h
Confidence
0.89
Liquidity
100
Volume
$55,555,688
POLYMARKETMacroLONG YES
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform matches POLYMARKET
Market
2.3%
Model
19.1%
Edge EV
+14.4%
Resolves in
23d 3h
Confidence
0.89
Liquidity
100
Volume
$76,450,667
POLYMARKETMacroLONG YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform matches POLYMARKET
Market
2.4%
Model
19.0%
Edge EV
+14.1%
Resolves in
23d 3h
Confidence
0.87
Liquidity
100
Volume
$58,816,824
POLYMARKETMacroLONG YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform matches POLYMARKET
Market
4.0%
Model
20.5%
Edge EV
+14.0%
Resolves in
23d 3h
Confidence
0.89
Liquidity
100
Volume
$51,652,467
POLYMARKETMacroLONG YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform matches POLYMARKET
Market
2.6%
Model
19.2%
Edge EV
+14.0%
Resolves in
23d 3h
Confidence
0.87
Liquidity
100
Volume
$54,252,475
POLYMARKETMacroLONG YES
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

platform matches POLYMARKET
Market
1.5%
Model
17.8%
Edge EV
+13.9%
Resolves in
23d 3h
Confidence
0.90
Liquidity
100
Volume
$54,637,389