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Market 72.0% against model 70.9%. Resolves in 66d 18h, data updated 1d ago.
The model can still be informative here, but one or more gates blocks a trade call.
Decision layer
The model may still be informative, but at least one gate blocks an action-style signal.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
no side selected
70.9% model / 72.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
No edge after fees and slippage — the market price is fair within costs.
No edge after fees and slippage — the market price is fair within costs.
Model 70.9% vs market 72.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
No trade
The model may disagree with price, but the gates say the disagreement is not actionable right now.
Sign in to return to this exact question, review governed evidence, and record an append-only probability without exposing private thesis text.
Volume $519,631
Declining to trade is a feature: most markets are priced fairly within costs, and the risk gates run before any edge is considered.
The model estimates a 1-point lower probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 69% | — | +0.781 | Bullish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
No comparable events matched for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
analyzed by heuristicThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolves Thu, 10 Dec 2026 04:59:00 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
The engine sizes NO TRADE markets to zero. Sizing never overrides the risk gates.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| 0.00 |
| 0.20 |
| 0.000 |
| Neutral |
| Linked venue pricing the same event higher/lower (V2 scanner); masked without an approved SAME_EVENT or INVERSE link. |
| Recent price momentum | +0.10 | 0.35 | +0.035 | Neutral | Drift of the market's own implied probability over its last 8 price updates (typically hours; the key's "7d" is historical) — recent moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | +0.13 | 0.25 | +0.033 | Neutral | 2y-yield reaction in the 48h after the latest scheduled release — the observable proxy for surprise vs consensus. |
| Yield curve shift | +0.24 | 0.15 | +0.035 | Neutral | 30-day change in the 10y−2y slope. |
| News signal | —This factor was not available for this market. No news signal available for this market in the past 14 days. | 0.25 | — | — | Reliability-weighted direction of relevant news from the past 14 days. Official sources (filings, agency statements) carry more weight than commentary. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| Model probability | 70.8% | Prior: 69% · Market: 72.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.88 | Final: 70.9% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Since the first stored model read on 2026-09-17, the market has moved from 81.0% to 72.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: News signal, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 15 | |
| Price volatility | 12 | |
| Resolution proximity | 0 | |
| Data quality | 46 | |
| Category base risk | 25 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 8 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 12/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| [DEMO] Fed cuts rates at September 2026 meeting? (Venue B) category context: same category + wording overlap | 51.0% | -22pt |
| [DEMO] Fed cuts rates at September 2026 meeting? (Venue A) category context: same category + wording overlap | 58.0% | -31pt |
| Fed holds rates at June 2026 FOMC meeting? category context: same category + wording overlap | 74.0% | -52pt |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? category context: wording overlap | 0.1% | -- |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? category context: wording overlap | 0.1% | -- |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.