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Market 74.0% against model 22.0%. Resolves in resolved.
The model can still be informative here, but one or more gates blocks a trade call.
Decision layer
The model may still be informative, but at least one gate blocks an action-style signal.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
Why / why not trade
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
no side selected
22.0% model / 74.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Inside the 24h resolution-risk window — late-breaking information dominates any model edge.
Inside the 24h resolution-risk window — late-breaking information dominates any model edge.
Model 22.0% vs market 74.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
No trade
The model may disagree with price, but the gates say the disagreement is not actionable right now.
Sign in to return to this exact question, review governed evidence, and record an append-only probability without exposing private thesis text.
strong feature coverage.
Volume $189,225
Declining to trade is a feature: most markets are priced fairly within costs, and the risk gates run before any edge is considered.
The model estimates a 52-point lower probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate and 7-day price momentum.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 13% | — | −1.872 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Cross-market divergence | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.000 | Neutral | Linked venue pricing the same event higher/lower (V2 scanner); 0 without an approved link. |
| 7-day price momentum | +0.35 | 0.35 | +0.122 | Bullish | 7-day drift of the market's own implied probability — sustained moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to crypto markets only. | 0.20 | — | — | 7-day Bitcoin or Ethereum return, normalized. Applied to crypto-category markets only. |
| Rate surprise | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.25 | |||
| Model probability | 14.8% | Prior: 13% · Market: 74.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.88 | Final: 22.0% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
| Event | Date | Outcome | Prior mkt prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC March 2025 — Hold | 2025-03-19 | HELD at 4.25–4.5%. | 3% |
| FOMC January 2025 — Hold | 2025-01-29 | HELD at 4.25–4.5%. | 5% |
| FOMC December 2024 — Cut 25bp (hawkish cut) | 2024-12-18 | CUT 25bp (4.5→4.25%). Dot plot slashed 2025 cut projections. | 95% |
| FOMC November 2024 — Cut 25bp | 2024-11-07 | CUT 25bp (4.75→4.5%). | 98% |
| FOMC September 2024 — First cut (50bp) | 2024-09-18 | CUT 50bp (5.25→4.75%). First cut since 2020. | 58% |
| FOMC September 2023 — Hold | 2023-09-20 |
Node probabilities are conditional on the parent; hover for cumulative path probability. Leaf EV is per $1 YES contract at the current price, before fees (fee-adjusted EVs in the table on the left).
| Path | Path prob. | YES pays | EV (YES, after costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meeting held as scheduled > Rate cut announced > 25bp cut | 19.3% | $1 | +23.2c |
| Meeting held as scheduled > Rate cut announced > 50bp+ cut | 3.4% | $1 | +23.2c |
| Meeting held as scheduled > Hold | 70.6% | $0 | -76.8c |
| Meeting held as scheduled > Hike | 6.1% | $0 | -76.8c |
| Meeting cancelled / emergency reschedule | 0.5% | $0 | -76.8c |
Root-implied probability 22.7% reconciles with the model's 22.0% (±1pt invariant).
Federal Reserve June 2026 meeting rate decision. The model sees a hold as significantly more likely than market pricing suggests.
analyzed by heuristicResolves YES if the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate unchanged at the June 17–18, 2026 FOMC meeting.
Resolves Thu, 18 Jun 2026 03:48:52 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
The engine sizes NO TRADE markets to zero. Sizing never overrides the risk gates.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
| — |
| — |
| 2-year Treasury yield reaction in the 48 hours after the most recent scheduled release — a proxy for how markets interpreted the data versus expectations. |
| Yield curve shift | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.15 | — | — | 30-day change in the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. A flattening curve signals tightening expectations; steepening signals easing. |
| News signalsim | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.000 | Neutral | Reliability-weighted mean of extracted news direction labels, past 14 days. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| HELD at 5.25–5.5%. |
| 2% |
| FOMC July 2023 — Final hike | 2023-07-26 | RAISED 25bp (5.0→5.25%). Last hike of the cycle. | 87% |
| FOMC June 2023 — Hold (pause) | 2023-06-14 | HELD at 5.0–5.25%. First pause since hiking cycle began. | 25% |
| FOMC May 2023 — 25bp hike | 2023-05-03 | RAISED 25bp (4.75→5.0%). | 85% |
| FOMC February 2023 — 25bp hike | 2023-02-01 | RAISED 25bp (4.25→4.5%). | 96% |
| FOMC December 2022 — 50bp hike | 2022-12-14 | RAISED 50bp (3.75→4.25%). | 79% |
| FOMC November 2022 — 75bp hike | 2022-11-02 | RAISED 75bp (3.0→3.75%). | 87% |
Real historical events from the comparable-events library (showing 12 of 30 matched). The model's base rate is the realized frequency over the full matched set.
Since the first stored model read on 2026-06-09, the market has moved from 74.0% to 74.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Missing: Rate surprise, Yield curve shift, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
| Inverse liquidity | 13 | |
| Price volatility | 0 | |
| Resolution proximity | 100 | |
| Data quality | 62 | |
| Category base risk | 25 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 8 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 0 |
Composite score 29/100, higher = riskier.
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| AAPL reports Q2 FY2026 EPS above consensus? same event: same venue event + similar expiry window | 52.0% | +18pt |
| Core CPI below 2.8% YoY for May 2026? same event: same venue event + wording overlap | 48.0% | +3pt |
| UK inflation falls below 2.0% for May 2026? same event: same venue event + wording overlap | 55.0% | -6pt |
| Fed holds rates at July 2026 FOMC meeting? same theme: same event type + shared base-rate tags | 65.0% | -43pt |
| BTC closes above $100k this week? same event: same venue event + wording overlap | 61.0% | -2pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.