Fed holds rates at September 2026 FOMC meeting?
Market 54.0% against model 60.0%. Resolves in 83d 10h, data updated 13d ago.
Decision layer
Watchlist candidate
The market is worth monitoring, but the current edge or evidence does not justify an actionable label.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
One decision layer for the market read.
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
60.0% model / 54.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Interesting disagreement, but the full action threshold is not met.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Read this market in three passes
Model 60.0% vs market 54.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Watch, do not force it
Why this read matters
The market is directionally interesting, but at least one evidence, edge, liquidity, or risk condition is not strong enough.
Fed holds rates at September 2026 FOMC meeting?
Volume $144,400
Market-implied vs model probability
Factor attribution
The model estimates a 6-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 60% | — | +0.406 | Bullish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Model probability | 60.0% | Prior: 60% · Market: 54.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.68 | Final: 60.0% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Comparable eventshistorical base rate 13.3% - n=30
| Event | Date | Outcome | Prior mkt prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC March 2025 — Hold | 2025-03-19 | HELD at 4.25–4.5%. | 3% |
| FOMC January 2025 — Hold | 2025-01-29 | HELD at 4.25–4.5%. | 5% |
| FOMC December 2024 — Cut 25bp (hawkish cut) | 2024-12-18 | CUT 25bp (4.5→4.25%). Dot plot slashed 2025 cut projections. | 95% |
| FOMC November 2024 — Cut 25bp | 2024-11-07 | CUT 25bp (4.75→4.5%). | 98% |
| FOMC September 2024 — First cut (50bp) | 2024-09-18 | CUT 50bp (5.25→4.75%). First cut since 2020. | 58% |
| FOMC September 2023 — Hold | 2023-09-20 | HELD at 5.25–5.5%. | 2% |
| FOMC July 2023 — Final hike | 2023-07-26 | RAISED 25bp (5.0→5.25%). Last hike of the cycle. | 87% |
| FOMC June 2023 — Hold (pause) | 2023-06-14 | HELD at 5.0–5.25%. First pause since hiking cycle began. | 25% |
| FOMC May 2023 — 25bp hike | 2023-05-03 | RAISED 25bp (4.75→5.0%). | 85% |
| FOMC February 2023 — 25bp hike | 2023-02-01 | RAISED 25bp (4.25→4.5%). | 96% |
| FOMC December 2022 — 50bp hike | 2022-12-14 | RAISED 50bp (3.75→4.25%). | 79% |
| FOMC November 2022 — 75bp hike | 2022-11-02 | RAISED 75bp (3.0→3.75%). | 87% |
Real historical events from the comparable-events library (showing 12 of 30 matched). The model's base rate is the realized frequency over the full matched set.
Scenario treeEngine template
Node probabilities are conditional on the parent; hover for cumulative path probability. Leaf EV is per $1 YES contract at the current price, before fees (fee-adjusted EVs in the table on the left).
| Path | Path prob. | YES pays | EV (YES, after costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meeting held as scheduled > Rate cut announced > 25bp cut | 51.0% | $1 | +42.9c |
| Meeting held as scheduled > Rate cut announced > 50bp+ cut | 9.0% | $1 | +42.9c |
| Meeting held as scheduled > Hold | 36.3% | $0 | -57.1c |
| Meeting held as scheduled > Hike | 3.2% | $0 | -57.1c |
| Meeting cancelled / emergency reschedule | 0.5% | $0 | -57.1c |
Root-implied probability 60.0% reconciles with the model's 60.0% (±1pt invariant).
Description
Fed September 2026 meeting. Tight call — model sees marginal hold probability.
Resolution criteria (verbatim, with analyzer flags)
analyzed by heuristicResolves YES if the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate unchanged at the September 16–17, 2026 FOMC meeting.
Resolves Fri, 18 Sep 2026 03:48:52 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Suggested paper position
Paper position only. No real-money execution
Live open-market tracking
Since the first stored model read on 2026-06-09, the market has moved from 54.0% to 54.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Data quality65/100 - usable
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
Risk factor breakdownsim
| Inverse liquidity | 24 | |
| Price volatility | 34 | |
| Resolution proximity | 0 | |
| Data quality | 24 | |
| Category base risk | 25 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 8 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 1 |
Composite score 40/100, higher = riskier.