BTC closes above $100k this week?
Market 61.0% against model 56.6%. Resolves in resolved, data updated 13d ago.
Why this is not actionable
The model can still be informative here, but one or more gates blocks a trade call.
Decision layer
No-trade decision
The model may still be informative, but at least one gate blocks an action-style signal.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
One decision layer for the market read.
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
no side selected
56.6% model / 61.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Inside the 48h resolution-risk window — late-breaking information dominates any model edge.
Inside the 48h resolution-risk window — late-breaking information dominates any model edge.
Read this market in three passes
Model 56.6% vs market 61.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
No trade
Why this read matters
The model may disagree with price, but the gates say the disagreement is not actionable right now.
BTC closes above $100k this week?
Volume $129,600
Why the engine declines to trade this market
- - Inside the 48h resolution-risk window — late-breaking information dominates any model edge.
Declining to trade is a feature: most markets are priced fairly within costs, and the risk gates run before any edge is considered.
Market-implied vs model probability
Factor attribution
The model estimates a 4-point lower probability than the market, primarily driven by btc/eth 7-day momentum and historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 52% | — | +0.080 | Bullish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Cross-market divergence | —This factor was not available for this market. No approved cross-venue link exists for this market. | 0.20 | — | — | Whether the same event is priced differently on another venue. A gap may signal an opportunity or a structural difference. |
| 7-day price momentum | −0.03 | 0.35 | −0.011 | Neutral | 7-day drift of the market's own implied probability — sustained moves carry information. |
| BTC/ETH 7-day momentum | +0.67 | 0.20 | +0.135 | Bullish | 7-day BTC/ETH return z-score, tanh-squashed. |
| Rate surprise | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.25 | — | — | 2-year Treasury yield reaction in the 48 hours after the most recent scheduled release — a proxy for how markets interpreted the data versus expectations. |
| Yield curve shift | —This factor was not available for this market. This factor applies to Fed, CPI, and macro markets only. | 0.15 | — | — | 30-day change in the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread. A flattening curve signals tightening expectations; steepening signals easing. |
| News signal | —This factor was not available for this market. No news signal available for this market in the past 14 days. | 0.25 | — | — | Reliability-weighted direction of relevant news from the past 14 days. Official sources (filings, agency statements) carry more weight than commentary. |
| Crowd forecast | —This factor was not available for this market. Insufficient forecasters to compute crowd signal. Requires at least 5 calibration-weighted estimates. | 0.20 | — | — | Calibration-weighted average of user probability estimates. Only applied when 5 or more weighted forecasters have submitted estimates. |
| Model probability | 55.1% | Prior: 52% · Market: 61.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.74 | Final: 56.6% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Comparable eventsseeded prior 52% - 0 matches (min 8 for historical)
| Event | Outcome | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| BTC all-time-high retests after >20% drawdowns (2017–2025) | Reclaimed within 6 months in most bull regimes | Price-threshold markets depend heavily on prevailing regime. |
| Round-number threshold markets on Polymarket 2024–25 | Markets systematically overpriced near-miss thresholds | Anchoring bias inflates YES prices near salient levels. |
Scenario treeEngine template
Node probabilities are conditional on the parent; hover for cumulative path probability. Leaf EV is per $1 YES contract at the current price, before fees (fee-adjusted EVs in the table on the left).
| Path | Path prob. | YES pays | EV (YES, after costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threshold hit in first half of window | 25.5% | $1 | +35.8c |
| Threshold hit in second half | 31.1% | $1 | +35.8c |
| Never reaches threshold in window | 43.4% | $0 | -64.2c |
Root-implied probability 56.6% reconciles with the model's 56.6% (±1pt invariant).
Why this mattersTemplate (no LLM key)
A 4.4% probability gap at a 61.0% price translates to 1.2% expected value per dollar of payout exposure after costs on the NO side. EV — not the raw probability gap — is the comparable number: the same gap is worth very different amounts at 50¢ and at 92¢.
What could make this wrongTemplate (no LLM key)
The model's edge depends on its inputs being right. Concretely: the base rate of 52.0% may not apply if this event differs structurally from its reference class; the crypto.btc_eth_momentum_7d factor could be noise rather than information at this horizon; and with confidence at 0.74, the model itself concedes meaningful estimation error. The risk engine also flags: Inside the 48h resolution-risk window — late-breaking information dominates any model edge.
- - Risk score 45/100 — composite of liquidity, volatility, time-to-resolution, data quality and category risk.
- - Factor agreement 0.83: factors broadly agree, but shared blind spots are possible.
- - Data quality 0.65 (simulated input in MVP).
- - Simulated model values — this brief demonstrates structure, not live research.
Description
Short-duration binary on BTC price. Inside the 48-hour resolution-risk window — model declines to trade.
Resolution criteria (verbatim, with analyzer flags)
analyzed by heuristicResolves YES if Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $100,000 on any day this week on Coinbase Pro daily close.
Resolves Mon, 15 Jun 2026 06:12:52 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Suggested paper position
The engine sizes NO TRADE markets to zero. Sizing never overrides the risk gates.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
Live open-market tracking
Since the first stored model read on 2026-06-09, the market has moved from 61.0% to 61.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Data quality65/100 - usable
Missing: Cross-market divergence, News signal, Crowd forecast
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
Risk factor breakdownsim
| Inverse liquidity | 28 | |
| Price volatility | 74 | |
| Resolution proximity | 100 | |
| Data quality | 35 | |
| Category base risk | 50 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 8 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 3 |
Composite score 45/100, higher = riskier.
Related markets
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| [DEMO] Crypto regulatory bill passes Senate vote this week? adjacent contract: nearby expiry + wording overlap | 55.0% | +8pt |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 16, 2026? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + similar expiry window | 0.5% | +13pt |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 16, 2026? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + similar expiry window | 0.5% | +14pt |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 16, 2026? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + similar expiry window | 0.5% | +13pt |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 16, 2026? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + similar expiry window | 0.5% | +14pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.