[DEMO] Will Syntho Protocol launch mainnet by Q4 2026?
Market 61.0% against model 74.0%. Resolves in 188d 11h, data updated 13d ago.
Why this is not actionable
The model can still be informative here, but one or more gates blocks a trade call.
Decision layer
No-trade decision
The model may still be informative, but at least one gate blocks an action-style signal.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
weak feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
One decision layer for the market read.
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
no side selected
74.0% model / 61.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Liquidity score 18 below minimum 40 — modeled fills would be fiction.
Liquidity score 18 below minimum 40 — modeled fills would be fiction.
Read this market in three passes
Model 74.0% vs market 61.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
No trade
Why this read matters
The model may disagree with price, but the gates say the disagreement is not actionable right now.
[DEMO] Will Syntho Protocol launch mainnet by Q4 2026?
Volume $8,100
Why the engine declines to trade this market
- - Liquidity score 18 below minimum 40 — modeled fills would be fiction.
Declining to trade is a feature: most markets are priced fairly within costs, and the risk gates run before any edge is considered.
Market-implied vs model probability
Factor attribution
The model estimates a 13-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 38% | — | −0.489 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Model probability | 74.0% | Prior: 38% · Market: 61.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.44 | Final: 74.0% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Comparable eventsseeded prior 38% - 0 matches (min 8 for historical)
No comparable events matched for this market.
Scenario treeEngine template
Node probabilities are conditional on the parent; hover for cumulative path probability. Leaf EV is per $1 YES contract at the current price, before fees (fee-adjusted EVs in the table on the left).
| Path | Path prob. | YES pays | EV (YES, after costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threshold hit in first half of window | 33.3% | $1 | +34.4c |
| Threshold hit in second half | 40.7% | $1 | +34.4c |
| Never reaches threshold in window | 26.0% | $0 | -65.5c |
Root-implied probability 74.0% reconciles with the model's 74.0% (±1pt invariant).
Description
Thin-liquidity market. Model sees edge but LOW_LIQUIDITY gate blocks the trade.
Resolution criteria (verbatim, with analyzer flags)
analyzed by heuristicResolves YES if the Syntho Protocol public mainnet is launched before December 31, 2026.
- Deadline without timezone A deadline is stated without a timezone — the cutoff moment is undefined.
Resolves Fri, 01 Jan 2027 03:48:52 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Suggested paper position
The engine sizes NO TRADE markets to zero. Sizing never overrides the risk gates.
Paper position only. No real-money execution
Live open-market tracking
Since the first stored model read on 2026-06-09, the market has moved from 61.0% to 61.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Data quality55/100 - weak
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
Risk factor breakdownsim
| Inverse liquidity | 82 | |
| Price volatility | 32 | |
| Resolution proximity | 0 | |
| Data quality | 61 | |
| Category base risk | 50 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 20 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 3 |
Composite score 63/100, higher = riskier.
Related markets
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| [DEMO] Crypto regulatory bill passes Senate vote this week? same event: same venue event + wording overlap | 55.0% | +8pt |
| BTC closes above $100k this week? category context: same category + wording overlap | 61.0% | -4pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.