About Forecast Alpha

Built on evidence, not promises.

Forecast Alpha is a prediction-market research platform. Every signal is timestamped before markets resolve, every model probability is public, and every strategy in the marketplace has cleared a live performance gate before it can be followed.

We don't publish signals to sell subscriptions. We publish them because a verified, point-in-time track record is the only honest way to tell whether a research process actually works.

What's been built

Research terminal

A probability model across 300+ Kalshi prediction markets. Every read is logged before resolution — the record is public and cannot be retroactively changed.

Auto-execution engine

When a strategy passes its backtest gate (≥30 trades, ≥50% win rate, ≥1.2 profit factor), the engine executes on your own Kalshi account via your API key every 15 minutes. No pooled capital.

Strategy marketplace

Publish your strategy or follow a verified one. Every strategy shown has cleared the live quality gate — no unverified edge, no pay-to-play rankings.

Copy-trading network

Analysts publish signal feeds. Subscribers auto-execute those signals on their own accounts. The infrastructure mirrors how institutional copy-trading desks work, built on a regulated venue.

CME futures lane

A parallel research lane for CME Micro BTC futures via IBKR, currently in paper validation. Same gate-before-live discipline as the Kalshi lane.

Founder

Brian Lydon

Brian built Forecast Alpha to bring systematic, evidence-based research tooling to prediction markets — a venue where the information efficiency questions are genuinely open and the data pipeline is rich enough to test real hypotheses.

The platform is built with Next.js, Supabase, Prisma, and TypeScript, with live execution against the Kalshi V2 API and a paper futures lane via IBKR. Every component is production-grade and running against real capital.

forecast.alpha.support@gmail.com

Philosophy

Prediction markets are one of the most transparent pricing mechanisms that exist. Prices are probabilities. Outcomes are binary and fast. The edge is measurable in a way that equity or macro markets rarely allow.

The goal is to build infrastructure that makes that edge findable, verifiable, and executable — for individual researchers and eventually for institutional players who want exposure to this asset class without building the plumbing themselves.

Nothing goes live without passing a paper gate. The model version that's trading live today is the same one whose track record you can audit on the track record page.

Audit the track record How it works Get in touch