How Forecast Alpha works

Three products. One platform. Research, auto-execute, and share your edge in prediction markets.

Research & signals Auto-execution Strategy marketplace What we're building

01 — Research & signals

View track record →

Research loop

From market read to verified record.

Browse signals

Evidence

Read live prediction markets, crypto prices, candles, news, and market metadata.

Model

Estimate fair probability and separate raw disagreement from tradable edge.

Gates

Filter for liquidity, timing, ambiguity, volatility, and execution risk.

Record

Timestamp every model read so performance can be judged after resolution.

Signal anatomy

Every decision is explained.

Evidence

prices + candles + metadata

Model

64.2% fair probability

Gates

spread, liquidity, ambiguity

Record

timestamped before resolve

Decision gatesclear

quote fresh

spread

risk note

RTI basis

action

recorded

Explore markets

Built for Kalshi, crypto, macro, and event research.

Category pages make it easier to inspect active markets, compare implied probabilities, and move from a public overview into a deeper signal view.

Crypto markets Macro markets Fed markets Election markets Company events

Research guides

Kalshi signals Prediction-market signals Crypto prediction markets Kalshi crypto markets Prediction-market track record Signal methodology

CategoryMarketsModelEdge

Kalshi crypto

signal

128

61%

+5.2c

Macro events

calibrate

48%

watch

Fed markets

review

72%

+2.1c

Company events

risk

39%

no trade

Track-record pulse

0.075

recent Brier

32k

resolved

02 — Auto-execution

Build your strategy →

Beta · Free

Your strategy, auto-executed on your Kalshi account.

Configure your own signal filters and position sizing. Once your backtest meets quality criteria, the engine executes qualifying signals automatically — every 15 minutes, on your account, with your funds.

Your keys, your account

Funds stay in your Kalshi account. We execute via your API key — no pooled capital.

Backtest gate before go-live

30 trades, ≥50% win rate, positive expectancy, and ≥1.2 profit factor before the engine fires.

Shareable track record

Every strategy gets a public performance page showing your config, backtest, and live results.

Build your strategy →Free for all users

How it works

3 steps

Configure your strategy

Set edge threshold, Kelly fraction, max position size, and enabled categories.

Connect your Kalshi account

Paste your API key — stored AES-256-GCM encrypted, never logged.

Engine runs every 15 minutes

Fill-or-kill orders. Automatic settlement. Full trade log in your portfolio.

Live gate — required before execution starts

Backtest trades≥ 30

Win rate≥ 50%

Profit factor≥ 1.2×

Positive expectancyrequired

03 — Strategy marketplace

Browse marketplace →

Live

Publish your strategy. Let others follow it.

Every strategy in the marketplace has cleared the live quality gate — 30+ backtest trades, ≥50% win rate, positive expectancy, profit factor ≥1.2. No speculation, no promises — just a verifiable record.

For strategy builders

✓Publish your backtest-verified strategy
✓Get a public track record page
✓Followers execute on their own accounts

For followers

✓Browse strategies sorted by profit factor
✓Follow in one click — no pooled capital
✓Cancel anytime, your keys stay yours

Browse marketplace Publish your strategy →

How following works

Browse the marketplace

See every gate-passing strategy sorted by profit factor. Filter by category, win rate, or follower count.

Follow in one click

Choose budget overrides or inherit the strategy's defaults. Your Kalshi API key is already stored — no extra setup.

Engine runs automatically

Every 15 minutes, the copy-trading engine executes the lead strategy's signal logic using your Kalshi key and your funds.

See live results

Your trades appear in your copy-trading dashboard alongside the strategy's public track record.

What we're building

Live01

Kalshi prediction markets

Signals on crypto, macro, fed, and event markets. Copy-trading engine executes on your own account every 15 minutes — your keys, your funds.

SignalsCopy-tradingTrack recordStrategy builder

Paper testing02

CME Micro BTC Futures

0.1 BTC/contract via IBKR. The same signal discipline applied to dated futures — directional score, term structure, liquidity gate. Paper loop runs until ≥ 30 closed trades meet the quality bar, then live.

IBKR CP GatewayRoll managementBrake systemPaper → live gate

Live03

Strategy marketplace

Publish your strategy to the marketplace. Others follow it with their own Kalshi account — your signal logic, their funds, your public track record page.

Publish strategyFollow in one clickPublic track recordVerified gate

Free to start

Research first. PRO when the workflow matters.

Public signals, crypto terminal, calibration, and the track record stay accessible. PRO adds the deeper research stack for scanners, workspaces, screeners, alerts, and portfolio analytics.

Compare plans

Free

Signal feed and dashboard

Public track record

Crypto terminal

Calibration tracking

PRO

Research stack

Scanner and screeners

Workspaces and briefs

Portfolio risk analytics

No profit promises. No public trading bot positioning.

Forecast Alpha is a research and decision-support tool. Public pages focus on signals, calibration, track record, and paper workflows. Prediction markets, crypto, and equities involve significant risk including total loss.