How Forecast Alpha works

Three workflows. One platform. Research, test execution assumptions, and review configurations only when the evidence supports their inclusion.

Research & signals Paper & shadow evidence Strategy research catalog What we're building

01 — Research & signals

View track record →

Research loop

From market read to verified record.

Browse signals

Evidence

Read live prediction markets, crypto prices, candles, news, and market metadata.

Model

Estimate fair probability and separate raw disagreement from tradable edge.

Gates

Filter for liquidity, timing, ambiguity, volatility, and execution risk.

Record

Timestamp every model read so performance can be judged after resolution.

Signal anatomy

Every decision is explained.

Evidence

prices + candles + metadata

Model

64.2% fair probability

Gates

spread, liquidity, ambiguity

Record

timestamped before resolve

Decision gatesclear

quote fresh

spread

risk note

RTI basis

action

recorded

Explore markets

Built for Kalshi, crypto, macro, and event research.

Category pages make it easier to inspect active markets, compare implied probabilities, and move from a public overview into a deeper signal view.

Crypto markets Macro markets Fed markets Election markets Company events

Research guides

Kalshi signals Prediction-market signals Crypto prediction markets Kalshi crypto markets Prediction-market track record Signal methodology

CategoryMarketsModelEdge

Kalshi crypto

signal

128

61%

+5.2c

Macro events

calibrate

48%

watch

Fed markets

review

72%

+2.1c

Company events

risk

39%

no trade

Track-record pulse

0.075

recent Brier

32k

resolved

02 — Paper & shadow evidence

Build your strategy →

Beta · Free

Your strategy, evaluated for execution before capital is authorized.

Configure signal filters and modeled position sizing, then accumulate paper and shadow evidence against explicit quality gates. Broker credentials are read-only; platform policy disables real-order submission.

Credentials stay read-only

Optional broker credentials support reconciliation and balance evidence; they do not grant order authority.

Evidence gate, not authority

Sample size, calibration, expectancy, and execution-quality gates measure readiness but cannot authorize capital.

Shareable track record

Every strategy gets a public performance page showing its configuration, evidence stage, observed record, and limitations.

Build your strategy →Free for all users

How it works

3 steps

Configure your strategy

Set edge threshold, Kelly fraction, max position size, and enabled categories.

Collect execution evidence

Record quote arrival, touch, depth, fill, costs, post-fill marks, and reconciliation.

Review every evidence gate

Passing account and evidence gates is necessary but not sufficient. The code-level capital freeze remains active, and passing gates never enables orders.

Research evidence gate — no execution authority

Backtest trades≥ 30

Win rate≥ 50%

Profit factor≥ 1.2×

Positive expectancyrequired

03 — Strategy research catalog

Review the catalog →

Research catalog

A strategy catalog. Labeled by where the return comes from.

Every catalog strategy is labeled structural, risk-premium, or control — with its point-in-time measured record, its risk tier by worst plausible month, and its failure mode stated on the card. Predictive strategies earn a claim only through the five-gate bar; none has yet, and the catalog says so.

What you see

✓Point-in-time paper and graded records — never simulated retroactively
✓The market baseline listed as a strategy
✓BROKEN fills and losses shown, not filtered

What you don't

✓No 'verified/proven' labels without the five-gate bar
✓No user-tuned filter strategies fished past a backtest gate
✓No badge that quietly means 'route money here'

Browse the catalog Configure your research strategy →

How following works

Review tested research

Compare catalog configurations, bounded backtest evidence, quality flags, and the stage of each observed record.

Review the evidence stage

See whether the record is research, paper, shadow, or historical broker evidence before choosing to follow it.

Set explicit account controls

Any future broker-connected workflow requires opt-in, loss caps, reconciliation, and a strategy-specific authority gate.

Audit the observed record

Outcomes, exclusions, costs, and failure modes remain visible without blending simulated and historical broker evidence.

What we're building

Research beta01

Kalshi prediction markets

Signals on crypto, macro, Fed, and event markets. Users can follow research updates; subscriptions do not submit broker orders.

SignalsResearch followsTrack recordStrategy builder

Paper testing02

CME Micro BTC Futures

0.1 BTC/contract via IBKR. The same signal discipline applied to dated futures — directional score, term structure, liquidity gate. Paper loop runs until ≥ 30 closed paper records meet the research-quality bar. Live execution remains outside this program.

IBKR read-only dataRoll managementBrake systemPaper evidence gate

Available03

Strategy catalog

A curated catalog labeled by source of return — structural, risk-premium, control — with point-in-time measured records and each strategy's failure mode stated on its card.

Source-of-return labelsPoint-in-time paper recordsFailure modes on the cardFive-gate claim bar

Free to start

Research first. PRO when the workflow matters.

Public signals, crypto terminal, calibration, and the track record stay accessible. PRO adds the deeper research stack for scanners, workspaces, screeners, alerts, and portfolio analytics.

Compare plans

Free

Signal feed and dashboard

Public track record

Crypto terminal

Calibration tracking

PRO

Research stack

Scanner and screeners

Workspaces and briefs

Portfolio risk analytics

No profit promises. No public trading bot positioning.

Forecast Alpha is a research and decision-support tool. Public pages focus on signals, calibration, track record, and paper workflows. Prediction markets, crypto, and equities involve significant risk including total loss.

Preparing this view

Retrieving the current information and preserving your place. No action is required.