B2B design-partner pilot

Calibrated signals with evidence, uncertainty, and delivery lineage.

A governed, read-only research feed for evaluating probability data in a broker or institutional workflow. The endpoint remains RESEARCH_ONLY until every statistical, freshness, licensing, point-in-time, governance, and partner gate passes.

Apply as a design partner OpenAPI contract All API routes

Contract posture

calibrated-signals.v1

RESEARCH

status

no execution

AUDITED

delivery

every request

BOUNDED

privacy

no private records

Contract

What each record proves

Point-in-time

asOf records model computation; availableAt is the latest time every included input was actually available.

Provenance

Every governed source exposes source name, URL, publication time, availability time, and licensing status.

Uncertainty

Confidence intervals and independent-outcome counts travel with the probability; an interval is null when its cohort is too small.

Revision

revisionIdentifier changes only when the governed signal payload or exact evidence lineage changes.

Freshness and completeness

Published pilot methodology

The candidate population is the latest bounded set of active, non-demo markets. A record is complete only when its signal and prediction share exact model lineage, every referenced feature snapshot exists, availability timestamps precede computation, and cited-source licensing is governed.

Pilot freshness is measured from availableAt, not request time. Current acceptance targets 100% complete records no older than six hours. Candidate, delivered, incomplete, and stale counts are returned in the SLA object so a partial payload cannot masquerade as full coverage.

Delivery audits persist request, entitlement, schema, status, record count, SLA result, and failure state. Product-construction or audit failure returns 503 rather than an unaudited feed.

Example

Entitled request and abbreviated response

curl \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer fa_..." \
  "https://www.forecast-alpha.com/api/v1/data-products/calibrated-signals"

{
  "data": [{
    "marketId": "market_123",
    "venue": "KALSHI",
    "venueMarketId": "KXFED-26JUL-CUT",
    "title": "Will the Fed cut rates in July?",
    "asOf": "2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z",
    "availableAt": "2026-07-31T18:01:04.000Z",
    "marketProbability": 0.41,
    "modelProbability": 0.36,
    "calibratedConfidenceInterval": {
      "lower": 0.29,
      "upper": 0.45,
      "n": 84
    },
    "modelConfidence": 0.73,
    "modelVersion": "engine-v3.4.1",
    "schemaVersion": "calibrated-signals.v1",
    "evidence": {
      "snapshotCount": 7,
      "sourceCount": 3,
      "freshnessSeconds": 184,
      "provenance": [{
        "sourceName": "Federal Reserve",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/...",
        "publishedAt": "2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z",
        "sourceAvailableAt": "2026-07-31T17:30:08.000Z",
        "licenseStatus": "CITATION_ONLY"
      }]
    },
    "liquidity": { "score": 76, "volumeUsd": 142500 },
    "risk": {
      "score": 31,
      "state": "ELIGIBLE",
      "reasons": []
    },
    "historicalCohort": {
      "n": 127,
      "independentOutcomes": 103,
      "modelBrier": 0.188,
      "marketBrier": 0.201,
      "brierDelta": 0.013,
      "brierDeltaCi": {
        "mean": 0.013,
        "lo": -0.006,
        "hi": 0.031,
        "level": 0.95,
        "iterations": 2000,
        "excludesZero": false
      }
    },
    "revisionIdentifier": "0123456789abcdef..."
  }],
  "commercialReadiness": {
    "ready": false,
    "blockers": ["three design-partner validations are required"]
  },
  "pilotSla": {
    "version": "calibrated-signals-pilot-sla.v1",
    "candidateCount": 250,
    "signalCount": 214
  },
  "meta": {
    "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY",
    "schemaVersion": "calibrated-signals.v1",
    "requestId": "delivery-audit-id"
  }
}

Values are illustrative. The response shape follows the versioned OpenAPI contract; readiness blockers and SLA counts reflect the production evidence available at request time.

Privacy and use boundary

The feed excludes private notes, thesis text, identifiable users, pseudonymous user event streams, and order authority. Privacy-preserving aggregate consumer indicators may appear only after the configured aggregation threshold and consent controls pass. The API supports research evaluation; it is not an order-routing or personalized-recommendation service.

Pilot activation gates

• At least 100 genuinely resolved live predictions.
• Model-versus-market confidence intervals and anti-lookahead validation.
• Published freshness/completeness results and documented source rights.
• Three completed design-partner usefulness evaluations.

Join the evaluation cohort →

Preparing this view

Retrieving the current information and preserving your place. No action is required.

{ "data": [{ "marketId": "market_123", "venue": "KALSHI", "venueMarketId": "KXFED-26JUL-CUT", "title": "Will the Fed cut rates in July?", "asOf": "2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-07-31T18:01:04.000Z", "marketProbability": 0.41, "modelProbability": 0.36, "calibratedConfidenceInterval": { "lower": 0.29, "upper": 0.45, "n": 84 }, "modelConfidence": 0.73, "modelVersion": "engine-v3.4.1", "schemaVersion": "calibrated-signals.v1", "evidence": { "snapshotCount": 7, "sourceCount": 3, "freshnessSeconds": 184, "provenance": [{ "sourceName": "Federal Reserve", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/...", "publishedAt": "2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z", "sourceAvailableAt": "2026-07-31T17:30:08.000Z", "licenseStatus": "CITATION_ONLY" }] }, "liquidity": { "score": 76, "volumeUsd": 142500 }, "risk": { "score": 31, "state": "ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [] }, "historicalCohort": { "n": 127, "independentOutcomes": 103, "modelBrier": 0.188, "marketBrier": 0.201, "brierDelta": 0.013, "brierDeltaCi": { "mean": 0.013, "lo": -0.006, "hi": 0.031, "level": 0.95, "iterations": 2000, "excludesZero": false } }, "revisionIdentifier": "0123456789abcdef..." }], "commercialReadiness": { "ready": false, "blockers": ["three design-partner validations are required"] }, "pilotSla": { "version": "calibrated-signals-pilot-sla.v1", "candidateCount": 250, "signalCount": 214 }, "meta": { "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "schemaVersion": "calibrated-signals.v1", "requestId": "delivery-audit-id" } }