01
Review governed evidence
Start with a current market and inspect timestamped sources, market probability, model context, liquidity, and data-quality limits.
Private structured research beta
Turn evidence into a forecast you can learn from.
Forecast Alpha gives you a governed, point-in-time workflow for prediction-market research. Review the evidence, record what you believe and why, revise when facts change, and evaluate the process after resolution.
Free beta · no credit card · research only · not financial advice
The complete loop
Four steps, one point-in-time record.
02
Record your probability
Save a personal probability and confidence before the outcome is known. Every revision remains part of the audit history.
03
Write a structured thesis
Cite supporting and opposing evidence, state what would invalidate the thesis, and define the relevant time horizon.
04
Learn from resolution
Compare the forecast, market, and outcome, then preserve what the evidence and decision process taught you.
What you record
A decision process, not a hot take.
Each thesis connects your probability and confidence to supporting evidence, opposing evidence, an invalidation condition, and a time horizon. Outcome review separates a lucky result from a sound process.
Review the methodology →Privacy boundary
Private research stays private.
- Your thesis, rationale, and personal evidence selections are private.
- Private notes and identifiable event streams are excluded from broker data products.
- Forecasts are timestamped so calibration can be measured without rewriting history.
- You can export or delete your account data and opt out of commercial aggregation.
Start with evidence. Preserve what you learn.
The beta is designed to improve research discipline and calibration. It does not promise an edge, recommend a trade, or grant order authority.
Start research beta