Probability intelligence
See model probability beside market probability, rather than treating every price move as a buy or sell instruction.
Prediction market signals
Prediction-market signals that explain when to act and when to wait.
A good prediction-market signal is more than a probability gap. Forecast Alpha separates market price, model estimate, evidence quality, risk gates, and the decision label so you can see why a market is or is not actionable.
Research only. Not financial advice. Forecasts, paper views, and model reads can be wrong, and prediction markets involve risk including total loss.
Forecast Alpha terminal
Prediction market signals
EV
Signal anatomy
after modeled costs
Quality
Evidence
source and feature coverage
Logged
Outcome proof
before resolution
MarketModelMarketRead
Company earnings above consensus
Event market
Macro print below threshold
Macro market
Unclear settlement wording
Event market
Proof surface
Every landing page points back to the same research standard.
Forecast Alpha is positioned around transparent probabilities, explicit waits, and timestamped performance, not profit promises.
EV
Signal anatomy
after modeled costs
Quality
Evidence
source and feature coverage
Logged
Outcome proof
before resolution
Search intent
For people searching "prediction market signals"
Prediction-market researchers who want signal explanations, not trade hype
This page should define what a prediction-market signal is, show how Forecast Alpha separates signal from watch/no-trade, and point visitors into proof pages.
Decision gates
A signal only matters if it survives the gates.
Evidence quality
Inputs should be recent, relevant, and strong enough for the model to trust.
Cost-adjusted edge
Raw disagreement is reduced by spread, fees, slippage, and ambiguity.
Decision label
Every market should resolve into Signal, Watch, or No trade with a readable reason.
Risk-aware decision labels
Signal, Watch, and No trade labels make the decision layer explicit and reduce false urgency.
Performance context
Track record and calibration pages show how model reads perform after markets resolve.
How to use it
Useful when the page creates a next decision, not just a keyword match.
Market triage
Scan a large event-market universe and quickly separate meaningful model disagreement from noise.
Probability review
Use calibration and Brier scoring to understand whether probability estimates are getting better over time.
Example signal read
A useful signal explains the decision.
Company earnings above consensus
Event market
Model
61%
Market
53%
Reason
Model disagreement remains after liquidity and risk checks.
Macro print below threshold
Macro market
Model
48%
Market
47%
Reason
Market is close to fair value after costs.
Unclear settlement wording
Event market
Model
58%
Market
46%
Reason
Resolution criteria create unacceptable ambiguity.
Why no-trade signals matter
A research terminal should show where the model refuses to act. Apparent edge can disappear after cost, liquidity, timing, ambiguity, or weak evidence checks, and those refusals are part of the product.
FAQ
Is Forecast Alpha financial advice?
No. Forecast Alpha is a research terminal and decision-support product. It does not provide financial advice or guarantee outcomes.
Does Forecast Alpha place public live trades?
No. Public pages show research, model probabilities, signal context, paper views, and track-record data. Live execution is not part of the public marketing product.
What is a prediction-market signal?
It is a structured market read that compares market odds with a model estimate, then applies costs, confidence, liquidity, timing, and risk gates.
Why does Forecast Alpha show Watch labels?
Watch labels show markets worth monitoring where the current evidence or edge is not strong enough to call actionable.