SEC approves spot Ethereum ETF by end of Q1 2026?
Market 100.0% against model 95.0%. Resolves in resolved, data updated 14d ago.
Decision layer
Actionable research signal
The model disagreement survives the current gates. This is still research context, not financial advice.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
One decision layer for the market read.
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side NO
95.0% model / 100.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Model edge survives the current public research gates.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Read this market in three passes
Model 95.0% vs market 100.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Model leans NO
Why this read matters
The model-market gap currently survives the decision gates, but it is still research context and must be judged against the public track record.
SEC approves spot Ethereum ETF by end of Q1 2026?
Volume $148,225
Market-implied vs model probability
Factor attribution
The model estimates a 5-point lower probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 31% | — | −0.800 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Model probability | 95.0% | Prior: 31% · Market: 99.0% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.69 | Final: 95.0% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Comparable eventshistorical base rate 37.5% - n=8
| Event | Date | Outcome | Prior mkt prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEC vs Terraform/Do Kwon — Default judgment | 2024-04-05 | SEC won $4.5B judgment by default after Do Kwon convicted in Montenegro. | -- |
| SEC Crypto enforcement — Coinbase wins dismissal motion | 2024-03-27 | Court denied some SEC claims; case continues. Mixed for Coinbase. | -- |
| EU AI Act — Final passage | 2024-03-13 | EU AI Act passed European Parliament. First comprehensive AI law. | 92% |
| Binance — DOJ settlement and guilty plea | 2023-11-21 | Binance pled guilty, $4.3B fine. CZ resigned as CEO. | 60% |
| FTX — Sam Bankman-Fried criminal conviction | 2023-11-02 | CONVICTED on all 7 counts. Sentenced to 25 years. | 90% |
| SEC vs Ripple (XRP) — Summary judgment on programmatic sales | 2023-07-13 | Partial win for Ripple. Programmatic XRP sales not securities. Institutional sales were. | 35% |
| OpenAI — FTC investigation opened | 2023-07-13 | FTC opened investigation into OpenAI's data practices. | -- |
| EU MiCA Regulation — Final passage | 2023-04-20 | MiCA passed European Parliament. Comprehensive EU crypto framework. | 90% |
Real historical events from the comparable-events library (showing 8 of 8 matched). The model's base rate is the realized frequency over the full matched set.
Scenario treeEngine template
Node probabilities are conditional on the parent; hover for cumulative path probability. Leaf EV is per $1 YES contract at the current price, before fees (fee-adjusted EVs in the table on the left).
| Path | Path prob. | YES pays | EV (YES, after costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decision issued before deadline > Approved / enacted | 95.0% | $1 | -3.1c |
| Decision issued before deadline > Denied / rejected | 0.9% | $0 | -103.1c |
| Delayed past deadline | 4.1% | $0 | -103.1c |
Root-implied probability 95.0% reconciles with the model's 95.0% (±1pt invariant).
Description
Resolves based on an official SEC approval notice for at least one spot Ethereum ETF application before March 31, 2026.
Resolution criteria (verbatim, with analyzer flags)
analyzed by heuristicResolves YES if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves at least one spot Ethereum ETF application before March 31, 2026.
- Deadline without timezone A deadline is stated without a timezone — the cutoff moment is undefined.
Resolves Wed, 01 Apr 2026 03:48:52 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Suggested paper position
Paper position only. No real-money execution
Live open-market tracking
Since the first stored model read on 2026-02-15, the market has moved from 31.0% to 100.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Data quality65/100 - usable
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
Risk factor breakdownsim
| Inverse liquidity | 23 | |
| Price volatility | 36 | |
| Resolution proximity | 100 | |
| Data quality | 12 | |
| Category base risk | 50 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 20 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 3 |
Composite score 39/100, higher = riskier.
Related markets
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| [DEMO] Crypto regulatory bill passes Senate vote this week? same theme: same event type | 55.0% | -9pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.