Timestamped forecasts
Each persisted model read is written before the outcome is known, which makes later scoring meaningful.
Prediction market track record
A prediction-market track record you can audit after resolution.
Forecast Alpha records model reads before markets resolve, then scores those reads afterward. The point is accountability: Brier score, calibration, resolved outcomes, and model version history should be visible.
Research only. Not financial advice. Forecasts, paper views, and model reads can be wrong, and prediction markets involve risk including total loss.
Forecast Alpha terminal
Prediction market track record
Brier
Scoring
probability accuracy
Before
Timing
logged pre-resolution
Model
Versioning
versioned audit trail
MarketModelMarketRead
Resolved crypto contract
Track record
Pending macro market
Track record
Calibration bucket
Calibration
Proof surface
Every landing page points back to the same research standard.
Forecast Alpha is positioned around transparent probabilities, explicit waits, and timestamped performance, not profit promises.
Brier
Scoring
probability accuracy
Before
Timing
logged pre-resolution
Model
Versioning
versioned audit trail
Search intent
For people searching "prediction market track record"
Users deciding whether Forecast Alpha's forecasts are credible
This page should make the audit path obvious: forecasts are logged before resolution, scored afterward, and grouped by probability quality.
Decision gates
A signal only matters if it survives the gates.
Timestamp
A forecast should exist before the market outcome is known.
Resolution match
Scoring must follow the final market outcome and avoid cherry-picking.
Calibration
Good performance means probabilities match frequencies, not just a few wins.
Brier and calibration
Brier score measures probability accuracy while reliability diagrams show whether confidence matches actual frequencies.
Version-aware performance
Model versions matter. The product separates performance context so old and new reads are not blended without explanation.
How to use it
Useful when the page creates a next decision, not just a keyword match.
Trust evaluation
Use the track record to decide whether Forecast Alpha's probability estimates are improving or drifting.
Model comparison
Compare model versions and calibration buckets so future changes can be judged against historical behavior.
Example signal read
A useful signal explains the decision.
Resolved crypto contract
Track record
Model
62%
Market
55%
Reason
Brier contribution computed after market outcome.
Pending macro market
Track record
Model
44%
Market
42%
Reason
Forecast remains visible while waiting for resolution.
Calibration bucket
Calibration
Model
70%
Market
n/a
Reason
Reliability chart checks whether stated confidence matches reality.
Why no-trade signals matter
A research terminal should show where the model refuses to act. Apparent edge can disappear after cost, liquidity, timing, ambiguity, or weak evidence checks, and those refusals are part of the product.
FAQ
Is Forecast Alpha financial advice?
No. Forecast Alpha is a research terminal and decision-support product. It does not provide financial advice or guarantee outcomes.
Does Forecast Alpha place public live trades?
No. Public pages show research, model probabilities, signal context, paper views, and track-record data. Live execution is not part of the public marketing product.
What is a Brier score?
Brier score is the mean squared error between a probability forecast and a binary outcome. Lower is better, with 0 perfect and 0.25 equivalent to always guessing 50/50.
Why does timestamping matter?
Timestamping prevents after-the-fact editing from masquerading as forecast skill. A forecast must be logged before resolution to be useful proof.