BTC closes above $120k before March 2026?
Market 0.0% against model 6.4%. Resolves in resolved, data updated 14d ago.
Decision layer
Actionable research signal
The model disagreement survives the current gates. This is still research context, not financial advice.
Expected value after costs, not raw probability spread.
How much support the model sees across available inputs.
Thin markets can erase apparent edge through spread and slippage.
Resolution ambiguity, timing, and data quality pressure the decision.
usable feature coverage.
Why / why not trade
One decision layer for the market read.
This public box mirrors the internal diagnostic style without exposing execution controls: decision, probability gap, cost-adjusted edge, blocker, and next thing to monitor.
side YES
6.4% model / 0.0% market
fees, spread, slippage, risk
Model edge survives the current public research gates.
Watch whether the market price moves toward or away from the model.
Read this market in three passes
Model 6.4% vs market 0.0%.
Raw disagreement is reduced by fees, spread, slippage, and risk controls.
Model leans YES
Why this read matters
The model-market gap currently survives the decision gates, but it is still research context and must be judged against the public track record.
BTC closes above $120k before March 2026?
Volume $160,000
Market-implied vs model probability
Factor attribution
The model estimates a 6-point higher probability than the market, primarily driven by historical base rate.
| FACTOR | SIGNAL | WEIGHT | LOG-ODDS ΔLog-odds contribution measures how much each factor shifted the model's probability estimate in log-odds space — the mathematically correct way to stack independent evidence. Formula: Δlog-odds = weight × signal. Positive values push the probability up; negative values push it down. Log-odds are converted back to probability via the logistic function at the end. | DIRECTION | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical base rate | 28% | — | −0.945 | Bearish | Historical frequency for this kind of event — the prior before any market-specific evidence. |
| Model probability | 6.4% | Prior: 28% · Market: 2.3% | |||
| Confidence (λ)Confidence λ (lambda) controls how much weight to give the model vs. the market. Formula: p_final = λ·p_model + (1−λ)·p_market. λ is derived from data quality, factor agreement, and liquidity. When inputs are weak, the model shrinks toward the market — not toward 50%. | 0.70 | Final: 6.4% = λ·model + (1−λ)·market | |||
Comparable eventsseeded prior 28% - 0 matches (min 8 for historical)
No comparable events matched for this market.
Scenario treeEngine template
Node probabilities are conditional on the parent; hover for cumulative path probability. Leaf EV is per $1 YES contract at the current price, before fees (fee-adjusted EVs in the table on the left).
| Path | Path prob. | YES pays | EV (YES, after costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threshold hit in first half of window | 2.9% | $1 | +97.0c |
| Threshold hit in second half | 3.5% | $1 | +97.0c |
| Never reaches threshold in window | 93.6% | $0 | -3.0c |
Root-implied probability 6.4% reconciles with the model's 6.4% (±1pt invariant).
Description
Resolves on the first daily close above $120,000 on the Coinbase BTC-USD reference rate before March 1, 2026.
Resolution criteria (verbatim, with analyzer flags)
analyzed by heuristicResolves YES if Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closes above $120,000 on any day before March 1, 2026 on Coinbase Pro daily close.
- Deadline without timezone A deadline is stated without a timezone — the cutoff moment is undefined.
Resolves Mon, 02 Mar 2026 03:48:52 GMT. The contract pays on these exact criteria, not on the thesis.
Suggested paper position
Paper position only. No real-money execution
Live open-market tracking
Since the first stored model read on 2026-01-26, the market has moved from 41.0% to 0.0%.
This is a directional diagnostic for unresolved markets, not final performance. Resolved outcomes still determine the official live record.
Data quality66/100 - usable
When features are unavailable, the model increases uncertainty and weights the final estimate closer to the market price. Lower data quality does not mean the market is wrong. It means the model is being appropriately humble.
Risk factor breakdownsim
| Inverse liquidity | 20 | |
| Price volatility | 46 | |
| Resolution proximity | 100 | |
| Data quality | 47 | |
| Category base risk | 50 | |
| Resolution ambiguity | 20 | |
| Regulatory exposure | 0 | |
| Portfolio concentration | 3 |
Composite score 38/100, higher = riskier.
Related markets
| Market | Mkt | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| Category context | ||
| BTC closes above $100k this week? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + wording overlap | 61.0% | -2pt |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 16, 2026? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + wording overlap | 99.5% | -12pt |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 16, 2026? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + wording overlap | 99.5% | -12pt |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 16, 2026? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + wording overlap | 99.5% | -12pt |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 16, 2026? adjacent contract: same asset (BTC) + wording overlap | 99.5% | -12pt |
Divergences > 5pt flagged in amber. For cross-venue pricing, see the Scanner.