Forecast Alpha

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Turn model inputs into evidence-backed market briefs.

The engine computes every number; the explanation layer turns persisted inputs into a structured brief. Select a market to inspect the thesis, evidence, uncertainty, and comparable outcomes.
Briefs explain simulated engine output

Theme discovery

Find questions through governed evidence activity

Topics are deterministic projections over active questions, governed publishers, and point-in-time observations. Ranking uses evidence breadth, freshness, and coverage—not clicks or user popularity. Sentiment direction remains question-specific and is never combined across unlike markets.

Clear U.S. elections
CurrentCollection is succeeding within its expected cadence.
Last success Aug 1, 2026, 8:45 AM UTC
CurrentCollection is succeeding within its expected cadence.
Last success Aug 1, 2026, 6:25 AM UTC
Evidence current4 row-production checks are passing.
Audited Jul 31, 2026, 11:50 PM UTC

Question-relative market intelligence

Evidence attention is separate from interpreted direction

These descriptive observations summarize governed sources available at the stated time. They do not change the deterministic production probability or authorize a signal.

attention only

Linked evidence

9

documents in latest observation

Source diversity

1

independent publishers

Evidence velocity

67%

published in latest 24h window

Direction vs exact question

Not classified

No verified directional interpretation

Current records establish attention and provenance only. Forecast Alpha will not display legacy neutral placeholders as sentiment or infer a directional view without a completed, versioned classification.Available 2026-08-01 05:55 UTC · news-attention-v3

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Market intelligence

Review question-relative evidence before recording a thesis

distinct sources · point in time

Open at least two governed sources, including evidence that could challenge your initial view. Source reviews and citations are recorded separately so the decision history shows what was actually considered.

Bitcoin shrugs off AI selloff but high-stakes Fed meeting could determine what's next
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-27available 2026-07-27 19:55Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitmine buys more ether as Tom Lee says rising ETH/BTC ratio points to stronger crypto prices
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-27available 2026-07-27 12:55Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin options traders are dropping their hedges going into the Fed meeting
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-27available 2026-07-27 11:53Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Ballooning U.S. debt sends investors to bitcoin, gold to shelter from dollar devaluation
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-27available 2026-07-27 11:15Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin ETFs post third straight weekly inflows despite $465 million in late-week losses
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-27available 2026-07-27 11:04Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Live updates: Bitcoin gives up early gains, holds near $65,000 as AI stocks skid
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-27available 2026-07-27 06:43Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Saylor and team overhaul Strategy's bitcoin metrics as bear market persists
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-24available 2026-07-24 13:15Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
A $5 billion cluster has formed in bitcoin options. It tells a bullish story
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-24available 2026-07-24 11:34Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin settles near $65,000 as oil's march toward $100 fails to spook the market
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-24available 2026-07-24 11:19Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Poolin was bitcoin's biggest mining pool and now it's filing for bankruptcy
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-24available 2026-07-24 11:09Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Citadel bets on a Fed rate hike Wednesday as bitcoin analysts call a hold. Someone will be wrong.
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-29available 2026-07-29 05:37Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin rises toward $64,000 as Korea's record chip crash leaves crypto untouched
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-29available 2026-07-29 05:32Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
'Anything remotely dovish' from Fed could be good for bitcoin, says analyst
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-28available 2026-07-28 20:23Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Morgan Stanley debuts ether, solana exchange-traded products after bitcoin fund success
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-28available 2026-07-28 14:30Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Core Scientific lands AMD AI deal as bitcoin mining operation winds down
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-28available 2026-07-28 12:46Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Apple kept fake bitcoin wallet on App Store after $875,000 theft report, lawsuit alleges
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-28available 2026-07-28 11:59Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin’s recent stability hasn't been enough to spark a broader altcoin rally
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-28available 2026-07-28 11:37Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin drops as South Korean stocks tumble, Senate shelves crypto Clarity Act
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-28available 2026-07-28 11:09Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Live updates: Bitcoin's next move hinges on breakeven wall at $68,500; Nasdaq futures wilt
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-28available 2026-07-28 07:46Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin slides 2% after U.S. close while Korea’s Kospi plunges 10%
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-28available 2026-07-28 04:32Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin ETFs on track for the smallest monthly inflows ever
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 11:18Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Live updates: Bitcoin rises above $64,000 as Microsoft's AI payoff lifts stocks
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 09:01Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin and ether markets are ruled by perps. SpaceX showed how far their influence can go
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 09:00Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin, ether whipsaw wipes out $286 million in leveraged bets
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 06:59Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin analysts agree the Fed's hold was hawkish. They are split on what happens next.
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 06:28Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin's quantum plan assumes some algorithms break. AI just weakened one in 60 hours
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 04:16Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin, Ethereum Wobble as Fed Holds Rates Steady
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Decryptpublished 2026-07-29available 2026-07-29 18:43Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
3 reasons Wednesday's Fed meeting is pivotal for BTC
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-29available 2026-07-29 11:15Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin steadies above $64,000 as crypto looks to Fed interest-rate decision
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-29available 2026-07-29 10:34Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Live updates: Bitcoin clears $64,000 in Asia hours ahead of Fed decision
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-29available 2026-07-29 06:25Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Treasury Secretary Invokes Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto in Plea for Clarity Act
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Decryptpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 19:32Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin Quantum Threat Inches Closer as IBM Claims 'Trusted Quantum Advantage'
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Decryptpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 17:36Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
There's a New Way to Protect Bitcoin From Future Quantum Attacks, Researchers Say
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Decryptpublished 2026-07-29available 2026-07-29 20:01Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
How bitcoin cold wallets lost $70 million in an attack that never touched the devices
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-08-01available 2026-08-01 05:55Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Strategy books $8.2 billion Q2 loss on bitcoin price decline
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-30available 2026-07-30 20:32Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin holds monthly gain, faces 'choppy' August as 'forced-selling' exhausted, analysts say
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 20:50Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
US Treasury Sanctions Iranian Firms Taking Bitcoin for Hormuz Passage
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Decryptpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 15:05Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
U.S. sanctions Iran-linked bitcoin insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz ships
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 11:58Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin $60,000 put leads the pack as mood swings bearish for August
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 11:36Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin, ether fall, equities rally with broader crypto market on track for best month in a year
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 11:07Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
$38M in Bitcoin Drained by Coldcard Key Flaw Its Maker Thinks AI Found
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Decryptpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 09:02Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin’s calm is back and so is the setup for a volatility explosion
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 08:30Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Live updates: Bitcoin steady as Japan holds rates at 1%, keeping the yen carry trade alive
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 07:46Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as Kospi's record 17% surge leaves crypto untouched
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 05:43Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67
Major bitcoin wallet flaw drains 594 BTC in 25-minute sweep
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CoinDeskpublished 2026-07-31available 2026-07-31 05:12Zlink onlyrelevance 60%velocity 0.67

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