A track record you can audit.

General-engine rows come from model_predictions. Short-term crypto rows come from short_term_crypto_forecasts. In both cases, the displayed forecast was written at prediction time with the model probability, market probability, model version, and timestamp needed to score it later.

General-engine predictions are append-only and enforced at the database level: UPDATE and DELETE statements on it fail with an error, for everyone, including us. A prediction that turned out wrong cannot be edited or removed - it stays on this page forever.

Short-term crypto forecasts keep the prediction fields fixed and fill outcome, Brier, and log-loss fields only after settlement. That keeps the intraday record scoreable while preserving the original forecast probability and timestamp.

Demo-market predictions are simulated and shown only under the clearly-labeled "Simulated history" tab - headline metrics come from live-market predictions only.